We’ve taken a brief hiatus from MLB betting over the last few days. In the meantime, we’ve picked up some units in college football and the NFL, especially last night with a nice win on Brock Purdy’s rushing yards. Today, it’s all baseball, and I have an underdog pick that will feel uncomfortable to take.

2024 Record: 112-116 (-8.59 U)

New York Mets vs. Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: David Peterson (2.75 ERA) vs. Chris Bassitt (4.30 ERA)

I don’t think anybody wants to fade the Mets right now. They’ve won ten of their last 11 games and are now a short favorite with David Peterson, a pitcher who is 9-1 with a 2.75 ERA. On the Blue Jays side, we have a pitcher with an ERA over four and a team that’s dropped seven of their last ten games. I told you it was going to be uncomfortable.

David Peterson has a 2.75 ERA and 4.87 xERA. That’s a difference of 2.12 runs, the most of any starting pitcher in Major League Baseball. His SIERA isn’t much better, sitting at 4.45. Sooner or later, that ERA will creep closer to his expected numbers. Javier Assad had the most significant difference between ERA and xERA at -1.59 runs, still well off what Peterson has been able to do.

The three things I look for when backing a pitcher are strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate. That’s the pitcher’s job and the three things he can control more than anything else. Peterson is in the 28th percentile in walk rate, 24th percentile in strikeout rate, and 23rd percentile in Hard-Hit rate. Based on the three things I care about, he’s in the bottom 25% of pitchers in baseball.

It’s not as if he has electric stuff; he has a 94 Stuff+, which ranks 76th among 128 qualified pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched. His saving grace is his 52% ground-ball rate, which has kept him out of trouble all season. He’s rocking an 82.4% LOB rate, one of the highest in baseball. If he gets the perfect ground ball or the line drive out to keep runners from scoring, we tip our cap. It’s unlikely he’ll get the perfect bounce every time this year; it just is.

Chris Bassitt also has dominated the Mets. He’s a former Met and has leveled up every time he’s faced them. Through 86 PA against the Mets’ current roster, they are hitting an abysmal .179 with a .265 xwOBA. Alonso, Vientos, and Nimmo are hitless against him, and Lindor and JD Martinez are a combined 4-24 (.166).

DFS apps and the way these pitchers are priced have exposed something. The books think Bassitt has the better start today, as his fantasy score is four points higher, and his outs line is higher with a similar line on earned runs. Peterson’s line is shallow, a number he’s cleared in eight of his last ten starts, including seven straight. He doubled this line in his previous start, yet the books are confident in hanging an easy line for the team that’s won ten of 11 games.

They hung a 33 fantasy score for Bassitt, a line he’s failed to exceed in eight of his last ten starts. The books agree here: Peterson is completely overvalued by the market, and Bassitt’s matchup today needs more respect.

Bassitt is better in all the numbers I care about. He has a higher strikeout rate, lower walk rate, and Hard-Hit rate, the lower xERA and SIERA. Based on that, I make the Blue Jays the slight favorite in this game considering home field advantage as well. The Mets have the bullpen edge, but credit to the Jays, they have been much better since August 1 (3.90 ERA).

Neither offense was any good yesterday, putting up a .153 xBA, and the Mets only had three hits. During this win streak, the Mets have a 96 wRC+ against righties, below average in that span. The bats aren’t actually that hot; they keep winning.

Not only does the line scream Blue Jays, but the matchup lends itself to the Jays as well. At home, anything +105 or better is a bet for me.

The Pick: Blue Jays ML (+115) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.