How about those White Sox? We all knew they could not win through the entire game, but the first five was our pocket. Paul DeJong hit a three-run shot in the fourth inning, and Flexen did his part, allowing two runs through five innings to give us the win at +120.

Focusing in on one pick a day has helped my mind narrow in on the best possible play of the day. We’ve hit two straight, let’s go for number three.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 59-71 (-13.62 U)

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jose Berrios vs. Colin Rea

When I looked at the board, the under in this game was the first thought that hit my brain. I knew both bullpens were in a great rest spot after their recent series, and these two pitchers were competent enough to limit the damage. Factor in two middling offenses at the moment, and I don’t see this game exceeding eight runs.

Jose Berrios has some fantastic numbers against this Brewers’ current roster. Through 50 PA, he’s rocking a 38% strikeout rate with a .174 batting average against. He’s posted a .277 xwOBA and a .355 xSLG. Yelich, Hoskins, and Adames are a combined 4-20 with eight strikeouts against Berrios in their career.

Jose Berrios is due for some eventual regression. His 2.80 ERA isn’t expected to last the season, as his ERA estimators put him in the low fours moving forward. He can hedge this a bit with his career’s highest ground ball rate. His xERA and SIERA are high because of his below-average Hard-Hit rate. It’s been his sinker, which has posted a .379 xwOBA against.

He knows the sinker is an issue right now, so he’s lowered the usage on that pitch over his last few starts. He’s using the kitchen sink approach, utilizing five pitches at 10% usage or higher. He keeps hitters guessing, and outside a massive blow-up against the Phillies, he’s allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts. He’s averaging 1.9 runs per start over his last 14 starts.

The Brewers offense has a 103 wRC+ against righties over the past two weeks. They’ve posted a 104 wRC+ against righties over the past 30 days. It’s a fine offense right now, but one thing they aren’t doing is hitting the ball hard. They rank 27th in Hard-Hit rate versus righties over the last month. If they aren’t hitting righties hard, I don’t expect them to key in on Berrios’ weakness enough to cause much damage.

His ER prop is 2.5 at around -115, with an outs line at 17.5 and heavily juiced towards the over. We should be in a great spot if we get six innings of three-run ball from Berrios. He has the potential to perform better, but we should be fine even if he goes over the prop.

Colin Rea lines up on the other side, another pitcher due for regression. If we look at ERA estimators, Rea doesn’t strike anyone out, and his command can get out of whack, and peripherals hate those pitchers. However, many of those concerning metrics are dominated by lefties, something the Blue Jays don’t have much of. Rea has posted a .831 OPS against lefties compared to a .600 OPS against righties.

The only lefties the Blue Jays have are Daulton Varsho and Kevin Kiermaier. Spencer Horwitz was just called up to play some second, but he’s still an inexperienced rookie hitting .167. Kiermaier has a .574 OPS, so if he burns up, tip the cap. Varsho could be an issue, but he has one weakness that Rea can exploit. The cutter is Varsho’s least favorite pitch to hit and Rea’s second most-used offering.

Rea’s earned run line at 2.5 is heavily juiced towards the under. We shouldn’t expect more than five innings, but he should be able to limit this average Blue Jays offense to two runs in that span.

The Brewers have a fantastic bullpen with five relievers fully rested. Herget (2.08 ERA), Paredes (0.00 ERA), Payamps (3.52 ERA), Megill (2.12 ERA), and Milner (3.73 ERA). There is a real chance that when Rea exits, the Blue Jays don’t score.

The Blue Jays bullpen isn’t great, but it’s hedged with more rest then the Brewers have. With multiple starters going eight innings or more against the A’s, the Blue Jays bullpen is in the best spot of any team on the board today. While they did get work yesterday, nobody threw over 18 pitches, and none of them had thrown since Thursday.

Green (2.03 ERA), Garcia (2.08 ERA), and Richards (3.48 ERA) are all ready for this one. If the game is close, which it should be, we should see all of these guys clean up the seventh through the ninth inning.

I lean the Brewers in this game but don’t want to back them as the favorite. Instead, I think both offenses struggle in this one. I project five runs allowed by these starters and two runs allowed by the bullpen. I would take this down to 8 (+100).

The Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) Risk to win 0.5 Units