That’s four in a row! The Oakland A’s made an incredible comeback against the Nationals to give us the 1-0 day.

We definitely caught a break, but I did say the problem would be the Nationals bullpen with how little rest they had. Luckily the A’s took advantage and closed the door with a 7-6 win.

Today, we are back to the drawing board with one pick. I have a few leans that I’ll discuss on TikTok live at noon EST, but nothing truly speaks to me outside of this pick.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.

2024 Record: 21-25 (-5.57 U)

San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Harrison vs. Edward Cabrera

Whenever I get to fade the Marlins at a reasonable price, I will take it more often than not. I made this bet thinking AJ Puk would take the mound for Miami, but he was scratched with an illness. Tim Anderson was also out yesterday due to illness; maybe a bug is going around the team.

Edward Cabrera will take his place instead, which is probably a better option than Puk, but he might not be at his best today. Even if he is dominant, it’s still the Marlins.

Edward Cabrera is making his first start of the year after rehabbing a shoulder injury. The Marlins scheduled him to start his final rehab on Wednesday, April 17th. With Puk going down, they had no choice but to put him in today. To his credit, his last rehab outing was fantastic. He tossed five scoreless innings while punching out nine.

Is Edward Cabrera ready? We don’t know. He was scheduled to stretch out to 90 pitches on Wednesday before returning, but instead, he’s facing a major league lineup two days before that. If I don’t really know a pitcher’s health status, and following him is a bullpen without much rest, I’m fading.

I would prefer to see Puk in this game because the Giants match up better against lefties. However, the Giants have the eighth-highest Hard-Hit rate against righties, so 91 wRC+ is due to increase at some point. It’s not a good offense, but it’s better than the Marlins’.

Kyle Harrison lines up on the other side. We tailed him last time against the Nationals, and it didn’t go well. The home run continues to be his downfall, but I don’t think he allows the long ball today.

The Marlins’ 38 wRC+ against lefties is hilariously bad. It’s 62% below the league average and the worst mark of any team. They also have the lowest ISO and SLG percentage against lefties; zero power has been displayed so far.

According to Baseball Savant’s park factor, loanDepot Park ranks as the eighth worst ballpark for home runs, so hopefully, Harrison can keep the ball in the park.

Jake Burger was removed from Sunday’s game due to left oblique discomfort, and it’s unclear whether he will play. He’s by far the best power bat against lefties on the Marlins. If he plays, I assume he’s not 100%.

The Marlins bullpen is one of the worst in baseball, and their three best relievers, Tanner Scott, Andrew Nardi, and Anthony Bender, have all thrown at least 29 pitches over the last three days. We will get the bottom of the Marlins bullpen today, that’s why we are playing full game and not the first five.

The Giants have a few key relievers available. The two best so far, Ryan Walker and Landen Roupp, are both available. Camilo Doval is off to a rough start, but he’s still an elite closer, and he’s available. We also have the Rogers brothers ready to go.

The Giants are 6-10. They are not playing well and coming off a five-run loss. This is not a team I love by any stretch, but they are better than the Marlins in every facet of the game. After the pitching change, the price dropped 5-10 cents. I would take that, and I’m taking it at my original price.

The Pick: Giants ML (-115) Risk 1.15 Units

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