No harm, no foul yesterday. We went 1-1 and went exactly even. The Tigers only mustered one hit against Shohei Ohtani, making me look like a bozo. However, I’d make that play 10/10 times; it didn’t go our way. The Guardians certainly did as they pummeled Dylan Cease early, then widened the lead as the game continued.
I’m not a fan of this board today, but I see one play with plenty of value. It’s another underdog; let’s get after it.
2023 Straight Plays Record: 114-118 (-2.96 U)
I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a first bet offer of up to $1000.
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All Bullpen Screenshots are courtesy of Rotowire.
Detroit Tigers vs. Miami Marlins @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Reese Olson vs. Braxton Garrett
Time for our get-back on the Tigers.
This line is way out of wack for multiple reasons. We don’t love taking teams after they’ve played a doubleheader and have to travel, but I’m assuming that’s baked into the line. We have a Tigers offense in their better split against a struggling pitcher and a rested bullpen behind a solid right-hander in Reese Olson. The public is hammering Miami for whatever reason, and I’m happy to scoop up the team that just lost two games in front of everyone.
Garrett doesn’t have a good matchup today against this Tigers offense. He has a real problem versus right-handed bats (.785 OPS), and we should expect the Tigers to stack seven right-handers today. The only lefties should be Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter; both can hit left-handed pitching.
Garrett’s main issue has been pitching in Miami, where he’s rocking a 6.06 ERA compared to a 2.65 ERA. His splits get even weirder when we look at day games (2.20 ERA) and night games (6.35 ERA). This is a night game at home against a bunch of right-handed bats. After an excellent June, he’s had a terrible July, and his ERA estimators are confused about what he will be moving forward. His 3.28 SIERA is excellent, but his 4.63 xERA puts him in the 28th percentile. From an ERA standpoint, I think he’s a fine pitcher who will be hovering in the mid-fours.
Reese Olson will toe the rubber for the Tigers, who has developed into a decent arm for them. He has the same xERA as Garrett at 4.63, a similar strikeout rate, a higher walk rate, and a much lower Hard-Hit rate. These two pitchers are pretty equal, and he’s putting Miami in their worse split. It’s not a large sample, but his road appearances have been his best, putting up a 3.18 ERA compared to a 5.40 ERA at home.
Miami is the third-best offense by wRC+ against lefties at 119. Against righties, they have the 22nd-ranked offense with a 91 wRC+. The Tigers have a 93 wRC+ against lefties, but on the road against lefties, that number rises to 97. The Marlins have a better offense overall, but the edge here isn’t much.
The bullpen advantage is clearly with the Tigers. They’ve been a better bullpen all season and have all their best arms ready.
As stated yesterday, Jason Foley, Alex Lange, Jose Cisnero, and Tyler Holten are all legit arms. As you can see, none of them have pitched in the last three days, so we’ll likely see most of them today, regardless of whether the Tigers are winning. That’ll be important as we have to keep this one close.
The Marlins added both Jorge Lopez and David Robertson, which is a great addition, but it’s unclear whether either will pitch today. If the Marlins go to Tanner Scott or AJ Puk, it continues to put the Tigers in their better split against lefties. Even if Lopez and Robertson pitch, I prefer the depth of the Tigers.
The Tigers should be +100 here. The model has the Tigers as slight favorites at -112. Regardless, the best value play of the day, in my opinion, is Detroit. Take them to +125.