For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We gave out some winners yesterday. The Atlanta Braves kept us from a perfect day but we cashed our two unit play with the Pirates! We finished the day 2-1 and up +1.84 U. Now it’s time to move on to today. There are only seven games on the slate and only two games caught my eye. However, I do have a two unit system play for tonight. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 55-31-1 (+29.23 U)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox @ 1:35 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Kenta Maeda vs. Tanner Houck
First game of the day and it’s a rubber match between the Twins and Red Sox. When looking at this game there were a couple of trends that caught my eye. The total for this game is set at 9 and the Twins are 4-0 in their last four games with the total set at 9 or higher.
They are 8-3 in games following a win and 7-3 in their last 10 home games against a right-handed starter. Those numbers stand out because the Twins are being given out as plus money and there is value on Minnesota.
When it comes to the rubber match between teams I tend to look at bullpens. The Red Sox pitching staff comes into this game with a 5.20 ERA versus the Twins with a 2.69 ERA. Pitching is so valuable in these series deciding games and the Twins have the advantage. In Game 1, Minnesota used their high leverage bullpen arms and they will be at full strength going into this game.
Kenta Maeda is coming off a loss to Chicago but when you look at the numbers he has pitched pretty well this year. I know he is 0-2 with a 4.09 ERA but he has yet to walk somebody this season. According to statcast Maeda is in the 84th percentile in xERA/xwOBA, 71th percentile in K%, and 95th percentile in chase rate. Those numbers show that he is pitching better than what his record and ERA show and I expect a Maeda masterclass today.
The Twins have been sneaky good all season and I expect that trend to continue into today. There are no weather factors in this game and I’m going to lean towards the Twins in this one because they are the better team. Maeda is a veteran and I expect him to make less mistakes than Tanner Houck who’s K% is down while his BB% is higher. The numbers are a little misleading with Houck and if your giving me the Twins at plus money I’ll take it.
The Play: Twins ML (+109) 1 U to win 1.09 U
New York Mets vs. San Francisco Giants @ 9:45 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Kodai Senga vs. Sean Manaea
System play! If you have been following a long you know one of our biggest system matches is non-divisional road favorites. Let’s go Mets baby it’s all about the Mets! New York comes into this matchup after taking a series from the Dodgers on the road. The Mets might be getting hot, they are 6-1 in their last seven games, 5-1 in their last six road games, and are 4-1 in games following a win.
Going back to last year the Mets have a 59% win rate against left-handed pitching and they get to face Sean Manaea who has lost a step since being traded from Oakland. According to Statcast Manaea has an expected ERA of 7.44 which ranks in bottom nine percent of the league. His numbers this year are misleading, he is in the bottom fifteen percentile in xSLG, xBA, barrel %, and whiff rate. This is looking like a regression year for Manaea and he will struggle against this New York lineup.
Manaea relies heavily at striking guys out. He is in the 73rd percentile in K% and has thirteen strikeouts in 11.1 IP. The Mets strikeout as a team less than anybody they have strucken out only 131 times this year which is second to last in the MLB. Like I said it’s all about the Mets baby!
When it comes to our system play it’s hitting at over 70% to start the season and we cashed our two unit play with the Pirates using the same system. The Mets also didn’t have a long road trip, they went from Los Angeles to Oakland while the Giants had to come from Miami.
The Mets have the advantage in this game to start the series and we are going to back one of the hotter teams in baseball.
The Play: Mets ML (-134) 2.68 U to win 2 U