Written By: Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We had by far the worst day in the MLB season yesterday. Overall a 1-4 losing record, I only posted four plays to the site but the Padres wanted to make my night worse yesterday but not coming up in the clutch. We lost -4.35 units on the day and it’s time to go back to the drawing board.
Losing days are bound to happen but not today, we’re giving out only winners and I have six plays today. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 48-23 (+30.95 U)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs. Jose Berrios
Yep. I’m going to be the guy to pull the trigger and bet on the most-bet game of the day. Everyone’s eyes are on the Rays today as they take on the Blue Jays and up until this game this is the best opponent the Rays have seen all year. We’ve bet on the Rays a couple times this year and Rasmussen has been one of the pitchers we’ve bet on all season long. We have faded Jose Berrios as well in certain spots and he is off to a horrible start with a 0-2 record and a 11.17 ERA. You are going to call me crazy but I have three plays in this game.
From a betting standpoint this line opened up at a pick em’ and now the Rays are -140 favorites. The line keeps moving in their favor and regardless if it’s the public play or not I’m going to back the Rays in this one. It’s tough for me not to bet a divisional road favorite in this spot especially with the Rays being undefeated.
On the baseball side of things Berrios has been horrible against the Rays in his career. He is 1-4 with a 5.86 ERA in eight starts. Berrios has been one of the most inconsistent pitchers in all of baseball since being acquired from Minnesota.
The familiarity between these two teams also has me favoring the over with both teams hitting above .280. and the over has taken some respective money. 66 percent of the tickets are on the over with 91 percent of the money.
When I see a total with numbers like that I see the books still giving credit to Tampa Bay. Berrios is the worse pitcher and if sharp money is liking the over then to me it seems more likely that he struggles against Tampa Bay in this one.
At the end of the day I was always going to back Rasmussen and the Rays.
The Play: Rays 1H ML, Rays ML, and Rays/Blue Jays O9. All of these are bet to win 1 U.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Washington Nationals @ 7:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Cal Quantrill vs. Trevor Williams
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros @ 8:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Martin Perez vs. Luis Garcia
Time for our first parlay of the year! I first want to say that have parlay’s like this are super rare for me because I know this is how you lose money long-term. In certain spots though there is value with placing a parlay and today I see a ton on both the Guardians and the Astros.
The Guardians opened at a -130 road favorite and have been steamed up to -160 and that is too high of a number to bet straight. That is why the parlay came into play and for a team getting 76% of the bets but 90% of the money. This is a square play but I’m fading the Nationals and backing Peter Appel’s guy Cal Quantrill.
If you tuned into the Not Gambling Advice stream yesterday then you heard me mention how the Astros have had the Rangers number. Since 2017 Houston is 70-35 against Texas and the Astros are coming off a road series to return home to Minute Maid Park.
Martin Perez is on the mound for the Rangers and he has lost his last three starts against the Astros. Houston has had his number the last couple of starts and Luis Garcia has pitched well against the Rangers. Garcia is undefeated in his last three starts against them and for a line that opened at -160 we’ve already seen it move in favor of Houston.
The Play: Guardians ML + Astros ML parlay (+166) 1U to win 1.66 U
New York Mets vs. Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Kodai Senga vs. James Kaprielian
This is a system play for me. It’s the rest advantage system, I know it’s a short season and this system will come into play more later in the season. The Mets had the day off and the Athletics finished up a four-game series in Baltimore. This system since 2015 is 283-179 which is a 61 percent win rate.
The Mets are the rested team with the day off and it allows there bullpen to be fresh, gives their starter an extra day, and they head into this matchup clearly the better team. I’m not going to overthink this play especially with the pitching matchup and we’ve faded Oakland a lot this past week so why not do it again.
The Play: Mets -1.5 (-132) 1.32 U to win 1 U
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Justin Steele vs. Noah Syndergaard
We are going to be looking at the total in this game. This is such an intriguing matchup between these two teams and this might be one of the sharper games today. The total is set at 8.5 and it is juiced up at -120 and I fully expect this to get down to 8 before game time.
Looking at the betting percentage in this game 68 percent of the tickets are on the over but 87 percent of the money is on the under.
From a pitching standpoint Justin Steele has started off the season strong with a 0.75 ERA over two starts. Steele has been an early bright spot for Chicago and he has a 3.60 ERA in two starts against Los Angeles. Syndergaard struggled in his last start but pitched well at home in his first start of the season, I see him bouncing back against this Cubs lineup. This one’s soaring under.
The Play: Cubs/Dodgers Under 8.5 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U