MLB Best Bets, Odds, Predictions for Rays vs. Guardians for September 29, 2022
We needed a day like yesterday. A 2-0 sweep brings us to 40 units on the season. But that was yesterday, and today is a new day.
I have one MLB pick here for you, but check out the podcast for my Thursday Night Football pick as well as plenty of prop bets to choose from.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/41JcXp9hds3OKMoQW68D2G?si=Lzfa72WAQb-Tfwb0Rb_PzA
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 216-177 (55%), +40.19 Units
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cleveland Guardians: 7:40 pm EST
Jeffrey Springs (LHP, Rays) [9-4, 2.56 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 126.1 IP, 136 K, 30 BB]
Cal Quantrill (RHP, Guardians) [14-5, 3.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 175.1 IP, 120 K, 47 BB]
We head to Cleveland for the third and final game of a three-game set. If you’re a consistent reader of this column, first of all, thank you. Secondly, you know where I’m going with this one but let me explain why.
The last two games have been extra-inning thrilers. Both teams came out with a win but the Rays bullpen has been used extensively. In both of these games, the starter has not pitched more than four innings, so this Rays bullpen has had to throw everyone they have in both games. If this game is close in the end, I’d give the Guardians bullpen the edge here.
The Guardians have not been very strong against left-handed pitchers this year. They rank third to last in OPS against southpaws over the full season, but I don’t think that’s the proper way to judge this offense at the current moment.
They’ll face off against Jeffrey Springs, who has been fantastic over the full season but hasn’t been quite as sharp in his last two starts. He’s allowed seven earned runs in the previous 10.2 innings against the Rangers and Blue Jays; both above-average offenses against lefties.
Since the month of September began, the Rangers have a 103 wRC+ and the Blue Jays have a 121 wRC+ against lefties. In this sample, the Guardians have a 105 wRC+, so they are keeping pace with above average offenses.
They’ve also seen Springs before. Back on July 29th, they scored three runs in five innings against them in a game they won 4-1. This is not a bad offense against lefties, especially lately. In the last two weeks, the Guardians have a 120 wRC+ against lefties.
The Rays will have to deal with Cal Quantrill. In the month of September, the Rays have a 90 wRC+ against righties which ranks 24th in baseball during the month. If we shorten that sample to the last two weeks, they are rocking a 92 wRC+. The Guardians have the edge on offense here.
They also have the edge on the mound.
There is one play here, and one play only. Quantrill get’s a leg up at home, but if you blindly bet Guardians money line through Cal’s 30 starts, you’d be 20-10. If you started tailing in July, you’d be 14-2. I’m not about to stop now, especially when I can get it at plus money.
The Pick: Cleveland Guardians ML (+100)
1 Unit to Win 1 Unit
Written by
Peter is the Co-Founder and Director of Content Strategy of Justbaseball.com and the Co-Host of the Just Baseball Show.