We went 1-1 yesterday and lost 5% of a unit. We watched baseball and didn’t lose much. Today’s board is very sharp; I don’t see much of an edge anywhere. I’m not one to throw you plays, I wouldn’t bet myself, so I’m just sticking with one pick today.
I will be all over the props today, so check out my podcast for a breakdown of my favorite player props on PrizePicks.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 185-158 (54%) +28.54 units
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: 9:40 pm EST
Bailey Falter (LHP, Phillies) [2-3, 4.41 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 51 IP, 46 K, 13 BB]
Tommy Henry (LHP, Diamondbacks) [3-2, 3.25 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 27.2 IP, 19 K, 12 BB]
We head to Arizona for the final game of a three-game set. The Diamondbacks have been red hot, putting up 25 runs in the past two games after a three-game sweep of the White Sox. They’ve been timing up left-handed pitching well, and they’ll face an underwhelming Bailey Falter today. On the other side, we have Tommy Henry, who is massively due for regression and does not match up well against Philadelphia. This has the makings of an over.
I want to target the starting pitchers, as that’s where I believe the most offense will come from. The Diamondbacks bullpen isn’t good, but the Phillies bullpen has been solid. I am slightly nervous about such a cheap money line for the Phillies, which makes me think the Diamondbacks bats will come to play early and often. At the same time, Henry should get crushed.
Tommy Henry has performed well this season, but his 5.06 xERA and lack of quality stuff or command is not a recipe for success. Since the trade deadline, the Phillies have been crushing lefties to a .317/.374/.506 slash line with a 149 wRC+ and a .379 wOBA. That places them second in wRC+ and first in wOBA during that span. Looking at the past two weeks, they rank ninth in wRC+ with a .293/.350/.457 slash line.
This Phillies lineup with Bryce Harper back is explosive, and after two embarrassing losses, the offense will come out hot. They have been one of the best offenses this season against left-handers, and it’s assumed Nick Castellanos will be back in the lineup for an extra boost.
On the same side, we know how the Phillies like to blow it. Bailey Falter is also due for regression with his 4.89 xERA, and his pitch mix doesn’t inspire much confidence, either. The Diamondbacks have been around the middle of the pack in the past couple of weeks against lefties, but they are putting up fantastic at-bats throughout the lineup, and I will not doubt they will put up some runs of their own.
Stone Garrett is a player to watch, as since he’s come up, he’s been mashing left-handed pitching. Emmanuel Rivera and Carson Kelly should join in on the fun, and both Ketel Marte and Christian Walker can mash.
Chase Field is expecting runs today in a humid dome. Ballparkpal calls for a 9% increase in runs and a 20% increase in extra-base hits. Runs will come early, so I’ll be on the first five. It’s supposed to be 107 degrees today in Arizona outside; it’s going to be friendly and warm in that dome.
The Pick: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks First 5 Innings Over 5 (-110)
1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit