Written By: Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
To recap yesterday we had arguably the most mediocre day ever. Nothing special. We started off hot cashing with the Marlins under and the Baltimore run line but failed to get a Dodgers win. Mookie Betts getting walked three times didn’t help us cash out PrizePick and we went 2-2 on the day. We picked up +0.15 units yesterday to avoid a losing day and now we flip the page. It’s a new day with a huge slate of games and we are going to get some winners today. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 44-16 (+33.13 U)
San Diego Padres vs. New York Mets @ 1:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Blake Snell vs. Tylor Megil
First off this might be arguably the sharpest game of the day. The Padres opened as a slight -120 road favorite and we now see the line has completely moved in the Mets direction. New York is now a -120 favorite and this is one of my favorite system matches. Teams who opened as an underdog then flip to being the favorite. It takes a lot of money to flip a line in that direction and we will be looking at the Mets in this one. New York has gotten 47% of the bets but have received 78% of the money.
This game also has a couple other system matches for me, a non-division favorite with steam in their direction is 30-19 this year hitting at 61%. Another system is favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last year are 323-190 since the start of 2022. Now when we look at the numbers Megill has pitched well. 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA. For Blake Snell on the other hand he is a public bettors dream. They see Snell at plus money and pull the trigger but fail to realize he is 22-32 in games he’s started, 10-16 on the road, and 2-9 as a road favorite since joining the Padres.
The Play: Mets ML (-120) 2.2 U to win 2 U
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago Cubs
Pitching Matchup: Logan Gilbert vs. Marcus Stroman
Yesterday these two teams faced off in a slugfest. The Cubs were down 7-1 and slugged their way to a 14-9 win over the Mariners. Coming into today Chicago rolls out their ace Marcus Stroman, he’s 2-0 on the season and has yet to allow a run.
Stroman is a competitor on the mound and has one of the better sinkers in baseball. This year he has generated a tone of swing and misses. He isn’t a strikeout pitcher but according to Statcast he is in the 82nd percentile in K percentage and 78th percentile in whiff percentage. The Mariners are a good ball club but they generate much of their offense around the long ball. Seattle has a powerful lineup from top to bottom but I see them struggling heavily in this matchup.
The line for this game opened up with Seattle as a -108 favorite and the line is now even. It has moved in the Cubs direction and by the time this line closes I expect Chicago to be the favorite. I like the matchup and the line movement is in our favor, let’s go Cubbies.
The Play: Cubs ML (EV) 1 U to win 1 U
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Colorado Rockies
Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty vs. Jose Urena
Fade Jose Urena day. Urena and Patrick Corbin are the two worst pitchers in baseball. Urena is 0-2 with a 14.40 ERA and has only pitched five innings on the season. He hasn’t made it into the fourth inning in either start and has a career 7.66 ERA against the Cardinals. Flaherty has been outstanding to start the year with a 1.80 ERA. He is also 2-1 against the Rockies in his career with a 1.96 ERA against them.
I’m not going to overthink this game at all. I know the Rockies bats have been hot this season but being in a spot to fade one of the worst pitchers in the game. It’s also hard to pass up. St. Louis in a rubber match with their ace on the mound.
The Play: Cardinals -1/2 1H (-115) 2.15 U to win 2 U
Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Matchup: Ken Waldichuk vs. Dean Kremer
We have two plays in this game both for one unit. First off, we are going to back Baltimore again. They are facing their third straight left-handed pitcher and this Oakland pitching staff is the worst in baseball. Waldichuk has a 14.54 ERA and we have seen these right-handed bats of the Orioles mash against lefties. The A’s have also used eight bullpen arms in the span of two games and if they get a short start from Waldichuk they are in trouble.
The total for this game opened at 8.5 and is now at 9 and it looks like it might even jump again to 9.5 with it juiced at -120. I see this being another high scoring matchup just because how bad both of these starters are as well as the bullpen. The A’s aren’t going to hit for power but they strung across 12 hits yesterday and I expect them to scratch a couple off of Kremer.
The Play: Baltimore -1.5 (+108) 1 U to win 1.08 U & BAL/OAK o9 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U