For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day from 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We finally had a winning day yesterday. It feels good to be back on the right side of things. The Rays came through for us cashing our two unit play and I’m ready to give out some winners this weekend. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 114-81-2 (+26.22 U)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays @ 4:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs. Tyler Glasnow
We cashed with the Rays yesterday but we are going to flip the script. Tyler Glasnow is making his season debut and he’s going against Clayton Kershaw who is still pitching at a high level. Glasnow is only making his third start since 2021 and he has struggled to stay on the field.
The Rays are coming off a bullpen game and I expect Glasnow to have a pitch limit in his first start back. If Glasnow gets hit around early it’s going to be tough for Tampa to try and piece together another bullpen game. Going against Los Angeles for your first start of the season isn’t ideal for Glasnow.
Clayton Kershaw hasn’t pitched well as of late, he’s had back-to-back starts without reaching the fifth inning. He has a 4.32 ERA on the road and he has struggled in May with a 5.12 ERA. Kershaw was dominant to begin the year but has struggled as of late. He’s also going against the best team in baseball against left-handers, Tampa is batting .311 against lefties this season.
This is the way I see it. It’s so hard to pick a side in a game like this especially not knowing what Glasnow is going to do in his first start back. The Rays have a favorable matchup against Kershaw and I expect the Dodgers to score a few off of Glasnow. The total in this game is too low for me, there’s too many opportunties for runs to be scored for this game to be sitting at 7.5.
The Plays: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays O 7.5 (-110) 1.1 U to win 1 U & Dodgers Team Total O 3.5 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Logan Webb vs. Corbin Burnes
I’m going to keep it simple. This one is going under.
The Brewers got routed last night losing 15-1 to the Giants. The Brewers offense has struggled this season and their only batting .234 as a team. They have struggled to score runs and are taking on Logan Webb who has turned a corner in the month of May. He’s made four starts this past month and has a 2-0 record with a 1.30 ERA. I don’t see him having any problems against Milwaukee’s lineup in this matchup.
Webb’s walk rate is down this year and if the Brewers aren’t getting the free pass I don’t see them finding a way to get runners on against him. His best pitch is his sinker and the Brewers have a good amount of lefties in their lineup and Webb has been effective when he throws his sinker inside to left handers.
Corbin Burnes has struggled in his last two outings but I expect him to get back on track this afternoon. The Giants offense put up 15 runs last night and I don’t see San Francisco’s offense putting up those numbers again. The Giants as a team are worse against righties batting .245 and Burnes is still one of the premier arms in the game.
The line opened a 7 and quickly moved to 7.5 but the line is juiced at -120. There has been some buy back on the under with over 70% of the money on under 7.5. I see a low scoring game in this one and there is a ton of value on 7.5 however I wouldn’t play the line to 7.
The Play: San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers U 7.5 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U