For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day from 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
This has been our worst week of the MLB season. The ball hasn’t rolled our way, but I’m not going to make excuses. I have to be better going forward, and that starts today. I have two plays on the card, and I’m going back to the basics. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 112-79-2 (+25.47 U)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Tampa Bay Rays @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Noah Syndergaard vs. Jalen Beeks
Without a doubt, this is going to be the most-watched game of the night. Both of these teams are coming off a series win, but the Dodgers are playing their eighth road game in nine days. The Rays are the best team in all of baseball at home, and in this interleague matchup, it’s tough not to back Tampa Bay.
Noah Syndergaard takes the hill for Los Angeles, and he’s not the same pitcher he used to be. He has gotten better at commanding the strike zone, but his opponents’ xBA is .290. That doesn’t fare well going against a team batting .269 and slugging .497. Syndergaard has one of the worst road ERAs amongst qualified starting pitchers. He’s made four starts on the road and has a 10.29 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP.
Syndergaard’s stuff just isn’t there. Opponents are batting over .250 on all five of his pitches and his put-away pitch has been the changeup, yet opponents are batting .288 against it with a .475 SLG. This isn’t a good matchup for the Dodgers considering how good the Rays are at home. Tampa is 24-5 at home while Los Angeles is 14-13 on the road.
As I mentioned earlier this isn’t a good matchup for the Dodgers. I don’t like them in this spot on the road, and they used a lot of their high-leverage bullpen arms this past series in Atlanta. This is going to be the series to watch this weekend, and I’m backing the best team in baseball.
The Play: Tampa Bay Rays (-117) 2.34 U to win 2 U
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Max Scherzer vs. Connor Seabold
The total in this game opened at 11 with +100 odds. Now the line is at 11.5 at -120 and it’s continuing to trend upward. I wouldn’t be surprised if the total hits 12 before game time. This is the highest total in all the games today, and trust me, it’s going over.
Max Scherzer hasn’t been the best against the Rockies over the course of his career. He’s 2-5 with a 4.54 ERA in 12 starts. Out of those starts, he’s made seven of them on the road. In those seven he’s given up 22 runs total and is averaging a little over three runs a start. However, he’s never made it past the sixth inning in any of those starts, and I don’t see him going deep into this game.
The Mets bullpen has a 4.02 ERA and I don’t like them at Coors Field. The Rockies have been swinging the bat well as of late, at home they are batting .278 and .263 against right-handers. The Coors Field effect will favor Colorado going against a better pitcher in Scherzer, and I expect them to put up some runs this evening.
On the other side, the Mets are coming off a blowout win against the Cubs. Their bats finally woke up in that series and they put up ten runs on an evening when the wind was blowing at over 20 mph in. New York is squaring off against Connor Seabold and he hasn’t been impressive to start the year.
Seabold comes into this one with a 5.97 ERA and his wOBA ranks in the bottom 7% of the league according to Statcast. He is primarily a fastball pitcher; he throws his four-seamer 53.7% of the time and opponents are batting .300 against it. His offspeed pitches haven’t been good either; opponents are slugging over .580 against his slider and changeup, and from top to bottom, the Mets are a homer-hitting team.
I believe this matchup favors New York hitters, especially with them coming to Coors. The Rockies pitched Daniel Bard, Justin Lawrence, and Pierce Johnson over 21 pitches yesterday and Colorado likely won’t have their best high-leverage arms heading into tonight. They have a depleted bullpen, and if the Mets get to Seabold early, we should have no problem cashing our over.
The Play: New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies O 11 (-115) 1.15 U to win 1 U