For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We finished off the week with some winners yesterday. We went 2-0, picking up +2 units, and I feel good heading into this week. I have three plays on the card, let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: (109-70-2) +33.62 U
Texas Rangers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates @ 6:35 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Dane Dunning vs. Luis Ortiz
If you’ve been following along since the beginning of the MLB season, then you know the Rangers were on my “no bet” list for a while. I’m making an exception today and giving the Rangers a chance to redeem themselves. I like them in this matchup against Pittsburgh.
Texas comes into this game on a three-game winning streak, while the Pirates have lost two straight. Dane Dunning takes the mound and has had a resurgence this season. Dunning is about to make his fourth start of the season and has only given up three runs combined over his last three outings.
Dunning’s 1.69 ERA is impressive, and having six pitches in his arsenal is going to make it tough on Pirates hitters. Opponents are batting under .200 on four of his pitches, and his movement is up on all his pitches compared to last year. His .225 WOBA ranks in the top 4% of the league, and he’s facing a Pirates team that’s struggling offensively.
Luis Ortiz has not pitched well to start his big league career. The right-hander lost his first two starts to the Colorado Rockies and Detroit Tigers. He’s facing a Rangers team that scored 31 runs this past weekend, and they are batting .272 as a team.
Texas is the hotter team, and they fare well on the road with a 13-9 record. The Rangers opened as a -110 road favorite and have now been steamed up closer to -140. I’ll take the better team with the line movement in their favor.
The Play: Texas Rangers ML (-136) 1.36 U to win 1 U
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Gavin Stone vs. Charlie Morton
This is another game that featured some heavy line movement. The Braves opened as a -120 home favorite and are now sitting at -150. I believe the line will keep moving in their direction, so lock this one in quickly.
Dodgers top prospect Gavin Stone is making his second career start after giving up four runs in four innings last time out. Stone has a tough test ahead of him going on the road to take on the Braves, who are coming off a series win. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have lost back-to-back games and will be playing their fifth straight road game.
Charlie Morton is on the mound for Atlanta, and he’s been better at home this year. He’s 2-1 with a 2.50 ERA at home and is coming off his best start of the season, having gone 6.2 scoreless innings while striking out 10. It seems square, but the Braves have a significant advantage in this one.
The Braves are still the team to beat in the National League, and they are better than the Dodgers. Atlanta has a better BA, OBP, SLG, and team ERA than Los Angeles. It’s the same thought process I have for the Rangers vs. Pirates game, I’m going to back the better team with the line movement in their favor.
The Plays: Atlanta Braves F5 -1/2 (-115) 1.15 U to win 1 U & Braves ML (-150) 1.5 U to win 1 U