MLB Best Bets May 16th, 2023

Two games stand out on today's MLB slate, and our attention will be on the Marlins-Nationals and Diamondbacks-Athletics tonight.

Jesus Luzardo
MIAMI, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 03: Jesus Luzardo #44 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at loanDepot park on September 03, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Sam Navarro/Getty Images)

For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season, I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day from 4:00 to 6:30 ET.

We had ourselves another winning day yesterday. We went 2-1, cashing out two unit play, and we picked up +2.3 units on the day. The perfect day is coming; if you would’ve told me yesterday that the Orioles put up five runs on Shohei Ohtani, then I’d think that they would’ve pulled off the win. Time to move on to today, and we have two plays on the card, let’s rock.

Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.

2023 Overall Record: 101-66-2 (+30.30 U)

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Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Josiah Gray vs. Jesus Luzardo

The Nationals are one of the best hitting teams against left-handed pitching in the league. We cashed their first five moneyline yesterday, and today they are facing another lefty. However, Jesus Luzardo is turning himself into an ace for Miami and has been pretty consistent throughout the season.

Luzardo comes into this matchup with a 3-2 record and a 3.38 ERA, but he has pitched better at home than on the road this year. He has a 2.79 ERA at home, and regardless of how good Washington has been against lefties, I don’t see them scoring against Luzardo. His opponents’ xBA is .233, and I expect Luzardo’s fastball and slider combination to be a problem for Nationals hitters.

Josiah Gray, on the other hand, has really solidified himself as a bright spot for this Washington team going forward. Gray comes into this game with a 3-5 record and a 2.96 ERA, and he has actually pitched better away from home this year. Gray has a 2.67 ERA on the road and has had seven straight quality starts.

The total for the game is 7.5, but the first-half total is the play. I don’t trust either one of these bullpens, and I want to back both starting pitchers today. This one’s soaring under.

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The Play: WAS/MIA F5 Under 4.5 (-130) 1.3 U to win 1 U

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tommy Henry vs. Kyle Muller

This play is simple. I’m taking the over, and I’m not going to overthink it.

Tommy Henry comes into this game with a 4.43 ERA, but he has struggled on the road with a 6.75 ERA. Henry ranks in the bottom 2% of the league in K% and facing an Oakland lineup that strikes out a ton that fairs well to our over. The Athletics have been solid against lefties this year, they are batting .262 with a .420 OPS. Arizona’s pitching staff has a 4.60 ERA, and with the total only set at 9, this Oakland team can scratch off a couple runs.

Kyle Muller is on the bump, and it doesn’t matter who’s pitching for Oakland besides Matt Miller, the A’s staff is going to give up some runs. Muller has been brutal this year, he ranks in the bottom percentile in xBA, xWOBA, and xERA. He has pitched better at home with a 4.58 ERA, but against an Arizona team batting .266 against left-handers, I don’t see them having much trouble.

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This could be the square play, but I don’t care. With a lower total set at 9 with two bad pitchers and two offenses that hit lefties well, it seems like a no-brainer to take the over. As I said earlier, I’m not going to overthink it. Runs are being scored today.

The Play: ARI/OAK Over 9 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U