MLB Best Bets: Marlins vs. Phillies, Orioles and Dodgers


Jesus Luzardo
MIAMI, FLORIDA - SEPTEMBER 03: Jesus Luzardo #44 of the Miami Marlins delivers a pitch during the first inning against the Philadelphia Phillies at loanDepot park on September 03, 2021 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Sam Navarro/Getty Images)

Written By: Tomas Romo

For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.

Three words. Washington Nationals moneyline. The Nats pulled it out for us on Patrick Corbin day and we couldn’t be more excited to pick up a +215 win. The Baltimore Orioles came through for us as well yesterday, cashing our team total and winning on the run line.

We did end the day yesterday with two loses but we finished with a 4-2 record, winning +1.73 units! Those were just the plays posted to the site but if you were following my Twitter then you would see I released a PrizePick entry as well that cashed. Bringing yesterday’s total to +3.23 units won!

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Now, we leave yesterday in the past and head into another day. I have three plays and a PrizePick entry for tonight, let’s rock.

Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.

2023 Overall Record: 42-14 (+32.63 U)

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jesus Luzardo vs. Aaron Nola

Yesterday the Phillies put on a clinic scoring 15 runs and handing last year’s Cy Young winner, Sandy Alcantara his first loss of the season. Tonight, Jesus Luzardo is taking the mound and it looks like he might have finally put it all together.

The young left-hander has struggled with command issues in the past but in his first two starts of the season he’s been electric. Luzardo is 1-0 with a 0.71 ERA in two starts only walking five batters and striking out 15. He’s made three starts against Philly, but in his lone start on the road last year he carved up the Phillies in seven innings allowing two runs on four hits.

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Aaron Nola on the other side has 20 starts against the Marlins with a career 3.18 ERA and in his three starts last year, he made it past the sixth inning in all of them. Nola however has been shaky in his first two starts of the year, giving up five runs to the Texas Rangers on Opening Day and giving up three in his last start at Yankee Stadium. Nola has always pitched better at home, he is 44-24 in his career at Citizens Bank Park.

The total for this game opened at 8 and is now down to 7.5. I don’t like either of these bullpens and playing the full game is too risky for me. I like these two pitchers in this one and I see a much lower scoring game than yesterday.

The Play: Marlins/Phillies u4 1H (-112) 1.12 U to win 1 U

Oakland Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles @ 6:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Kyle Muller vs. Grayson Rodriguez

Baltimore cashed for us yesterday and we are going back to to it today. The Orioles have continued to see lefties over their past two series and they showed it yesterday against JP Sears. Top prospect Grayson Rodriguez gets to make his first start at home since being called up as well. Rodriguez is going to put on a show for the home crowd tonight and I’m going to back the O’s especially with a line move in their direction.

The line opened up at -175 and is now steamed up to almost -200. I’m not paying that type of juice so we are going to continue to fade the worst team in baseball. Oakland has yet to win a game on the road and has lost five straight. Statistically the A’s are batting .198 as a team and have the worse run differential by any team in baseball at -49.

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If it isn’t broke, don’t fix it.

The Play: Orioles -1.5 (+115) 1U to win 1.15U

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants @ 9:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Dustin May vs. Alex Wood

We have yet to bet the Dodgers or the Giants this season and when I saw the line for this game I jumped on it in a hurry. The line opened at -140 and is now all the way up to -160 with it still looking like it will continue to move. I have two systems that match for the Dodgers today.

First, a road favorite who made the playoffs last year against a team who did not and that is hitting at 61% this season and if you go back to the start of last year it’s at 62%. Los Angeles mashes lefty pitching and Alex Wood is on the bump tonight. Secondly, the Dodgers are 76-37 that’s a 66 percent win rate against lefties over the last three seasons. I was able to lock this game in at -150 and I’m more than comfortable playing the juice with Dustin May on the mound. May has dominated San Francisco over four starts in his career with a 0.79 ERA. Give me the Dodgers.

The Play: Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-150) 1.5 U to win 1 U

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