For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We had ourselves a nice bounce back day yesterday going 4-1 picking up +2.32 U! I loved the board yesterday and I love it even more today. I have four plays on today’s card including a two unit play. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 141-96-2 (+34.07 U)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Kyle Bradish vs. Colin Rea
The Orioles are on the verge of getting swept by the Brewers and have an opportunity to bounce back this afternoon. There’s been a little bit of movement towards Baltimore, they opened as a -110 favorite and are now sitting at -115. The O’s match a couple of systems, they are 16-7 following a loss, they are an interleague road favorite which is hitting at 63%, and AL East teams versus non-divisional teams are hitting at 64%.
I’m playing the numbers again in this matchup and it’s hard for me to see Baltimore getting swept by the Brewers considering they are one of the best road teams in all of baseball. The O’s are facing Colin Rea who has struggled at home this season. He has a 5.26 ERA at home and a 5.81 ERA during day games this year. Rea has given up 9 nine homeruns this season and with the roof expected to be open I see this as a significant advantage for the Orioles.
Baltimore should have all their high leverage arms available, and they have the advantage in the bullpen. Yennier Cano and Felix Bautista have been a one-two punch in that bullpen and I expect Cano to bounce back if he appears in this one after surrendering the tying run in their 4-3 loss on Tuesday.
I’m not going to overthink this play, let’s go birds.
The Play: Baltimore Orioles ML (-115) 2.3 U to win 2 U
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 7:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Matt Dermody vs. Aaron Civale
The Boston Red Sox lost Chris Sale to the injured list last week and the team had a void to fill. Enter Matt Dermody, the 32-year-old lefty who will be making his first start of the season. He’s only pitched in 30 big league games between the Blue Jays and Cubs, this is a perfect spot to fade the lefty.
In the minors this year Dermody has a 2-2 record with a 4.50 ERA, those numbers aren’t impressive, and Cleveland has a higher SLG and OPS against lefties this season. Civale is making his fourth start of the season and he’s been solid to begin the year. He’s 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA and is coming off a no decision against the Twins giving up no runs over five innings.
I’m looking at the first five in this one, I don’t trust the Guardians bullpen in the later innings, and I want to strictly fade Dermody in this spot. Let’s go Cleveland.
The Play: Cleveland Guardians F5 ML (-145) 1.15 U to win 1 U
Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Drew Smyly vs. Reid Detmers
The total in this game opened at 8 and overnight it quickly shot up to 9. I was able to lock in the total at 9 but I expect it to rise to at least 9.5 before gametime. The main factor for the total rising is the wind factor in this game tonight. There will be 11 mph winds blowing directly out to center and with two lefties on the bump I expect some runs to be scored.
Drew Smyly is on the mound for the Cubs and he’s pitched well this season but worse on the road with a 3.60 ERA. He’s facing an Angels team that mashes lefties, LA is hitting .282 against left-handers with a .447 SLG and .796 OPS. The Angels will run out a heavy right-handed lineup and Smyly has only given up seven homeruns this year, but I expect that number to go up tonight.
On the other side Reid Detmers has been awful to begin the year. He has continually gotten worse from month to month and had a 5.03 ERA in May. He has a 5.33 ERA at home, a 5.61 ERA during night games, and has yet to make it past the fifth inning in his last seven starts. Chicago also mashes lefties, and they are batting .270 with a .445 SLG and a .787 OPS against left-handers.
I see runs being scored with ease tonight considering both of these bullpens have an ERA above 4.00. With the wind blowing out and both of these lineup’s success against lefties I’m not going overthink it. I’m taking the over.
The Play: Chicago Cubs vs. Los Angeles Angels Over 9 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U