For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
I expect June to be our best month of the MLB season. We had one of the best starts to the season in April and May was also a winning month picking up +2.61 U. We are still sitting pretty considering we are up +34.70 U this year. I’m ready to give out some winners this month and I have a huge card for today’s loaded MLB slate. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 132-88-2 (+34.70 U)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinatti Reds @ 5:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Corbin Burnes vs. Brandon Williamson
This might be a gross play but I love it. We are going to be looking at the total through the first five in this matchup. Corbin Burnes is on the bump and he hasn’t been his former Cy Young self. Burnes however has had success against the Reds, he is 2-1 with a 2.53 ERA over 14 appearances.
The Reds are throwing out lefty Brandon Williamson who has been horrible to start the year. He has an xERA of 7.55 and has had poor command during his time at the Major League level. He posted poor numbers in the minors but he has a decent arsenal and has a good matchup against the Brewers.
Based on splits, the Brewers are 29th vs. lefties in wRC+ and is probably the easiest matchup Williamson can get. Milwaukee is batting .209 against southpaws this year and I see their struggles continuing. The Reds are also in their lesser split ranking 23rd vs. righties in wRC+ and Corbin Burnes is a significantly better pitcher.
I mentioned earlier this is a gross play considering how bad Williamson has been this year. However, I believe he has his best start this evening and I’m going to continue to fade the Brewers against lefties. The first five total is set at 5 and I believe that’s just too many runs.
The Play: Brewers vs. Reds F5 U5 (-115) 1.15 U to win 1 U
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Jack Flaherty vs. Roansy Contreras
The line opened with the Cardinals being a -165 road favorite and the line continues to get steamed down in the Pirates favor. St. Louis is now a -130 favorite with Pittsburgh a +115 home dog and I think this is a great spot for the Pirates. I expect casual MLB fans to see that Jack Flaherty is pitching and lock in the Cardinals without even thinking.
Roansy Contreras is about to make his tenth start of the year and he is coming off a relief outing throwing two innings against Seattle last Sunday. Contreras has been streaky to start the year but he has flashed potential at times. He is making his second start of the season against the Cardinals and last time out he threw six innings giving up two runs.
Contreras has four pitches to his arsenal and his offspeed pitches have been effective this season. Opponents are batting .161 against his slider, .235 against his curveball, and .200 against his changeup. Opposing hitters have had success against his fastball but if he is able to not fall behind in the count early and rely on his off-speed pitches I expect Contreras to maintain this Cardinals offense.
Jack Flaherty is coming off one of his best starts of the season and I see some regression for him in this spot. As I mentioned earlier most casual bettors will see Flaherty on the mound after pitching seven innings and giving up one run and instantly back St. Louis. His velocity is down on most of his pitches and he hasn’t thrown this slow since 2017. Flaherty is primarily a fastball pitcher and opponents are batting .310 against his four-seamer and he’s going against a Pittsburgh team that smashes the fastball.
It’s important to note that Flaherty has had a higher walk percentage this season. He is walking batters 13.5% of the time which ranks in the bottom 9% of the league according to statcast. He struggled in the month of May with a 5.88 ERA and I don’t expect that to change this evening.
The Play: Pittsburgh Pirates ML (+115) 1 U to win 1.15 U
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox @ 7:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Tyler Glasnow vs. Garrett Whitlock
The Rays just dropped two out of three against the Cubs and are sending out Tyler Glasnow for his second start of the season. Tampa Bay opened as a -120 road favorite and have been steamed up to -130 and I tend to pay attention to steam of 10 cents or more. The Rays have a rest advantage over the Red Sox after getting a day off yesterday.
The Rays are also a perfect 5-0 on games after an off day. Tampa is 36-15 as a favorite and 31-15 against righties this season. In addition, the Rays have had the Red Sox number sweeping Boston earlier this year. I’m playing the numbers in this matchup and I’m getting the best team in baseball at a short price.
The day off as crucial for Tampa Bay and it gives Glasnow an extra day as well as ensuring that bullpen is 100%. Boston on the other hand has had to use their bullpen a lot over the last three games throwing 14.1 innings. The Rays have the rest advantage, your getting them at a good pirce, and their the better team. I’m not going to overthink it, let’s go Tampa.
The Play: Tampa Bay Rays ML (-133) 1.3 U to win 1 U
Chicago Cubs vs. San Diego Padres @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Jameson Taillon vs. Michael Wacha
The line for this game opened up with the Padres being a -155 home favorite and it has continued to move in their favor with San Diego now sitting at -170. The Cubs have struggled on the road and are 9-15 away from Wrigley Field. I don’t plan on laying the juice but I do see a ton of value through the first five especially when we looking at the starting pitchers.
Jameson Taillon has really struggled this season and hasn’t been what the Cubs expected after signing a four-year $68 million dollar deal. Taillon has only made it through five innings twice this season and is recently coming off a groin injury that sidelined him in April. Once returning from the IL his struggles continued, he has given up at least three runs in each of his starts and has a 7.80 road ERA.
Opponents are batting over .300 on four out of his five primary pitches and his velocity has continued to decrease. A part of me thinks he is still not 100% recovered from his groin injury and he ranks in the bottom 9% of the league in xSLG and xWOBACON. It’s not going to get any easier for him especially going against the Padres with Micahel Wacha on the mound.
Michael Wacha was flat out dominate in the month of May. He has a 0.84 ERA and never gave up more than two runs in any start. Wacha has been lights out at home with a 3.38 ERA and has yet to allow a run at home over his last three starts. Opponents are also batting under .300 against four out of his five pitches and he has a great matchup against the Cubs this evening.
The Play: San Diego Padres F5 -1/2 (-115) 1.15 U to win 1 U
Baltimore Orioles vs. San Francisco Giants @ 10:15 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer vs. Logan Webb
This is a value play for me. Baltimore is sitting around +140 and I have them as a much better team than San Francisco. The Orioles matchup a couple systems for me as well, they are one of the best teams in baseball following a loss at 14-6, that’s a 70% win rate with a 30% ROI. Baltimore is also playing in the best division in baseball and AL East teams vs. non-divisional teams are 121-70 this season hitting at 63%.
The Orioles travel very well they are 18-9 on the road, 20-13 vs. righties and 14-12 as a underdog. Meanwhile the Giants are 12-15 as a favorite and 18-22 against right-handers. Same thought process I had when it came to betting the Pirates as well. Most casual betters will see Logan Webb at home and pull the trigger on San Francisco.
I can’t forget to mention how good Dean Kremer has been this past month. Kremer had five starts with a 2.45 ERA in May with the Orioles going 4-1 over those starts. If your giving me the better team at plus money I’m going to play it everytime and I like this spot for the O’s.
The Play: Baltimore Orioles ML (+139) .5U to win .7U