We are so BACK.

The 2025 season starts on Tuesday, March 18th, when the Dodgers take on the Cubs in a two-game series. Last year, the Dodgers took on the Padres similarly, but the venue has changed from the Gocheok SkyDome in Korea to the Tokyo Dome in Japan. The only unfortunate news surrounding this game is that it’ll take place at 6:10 AM EST; set those alarms!

Here are my betting stats from the 2024 MLB Season:

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago Cubs @ 6:10 AM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Dodgers: Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA, 2.61 FIP in 90 innings)

Cubs: Shota Imanaga (2.91 ERA, 3.72 FIP in 173.1 innings)

Yamamoto and Imanaga are the first pair of Japanese starting pitchers to face off against each other on Opening Day. This game means a lot for these two starters; they had to say this.

When asked where this homecoming series in Tokyo ranks among his career moments, Imanaga said, “Number one. When all is said and done, when I’m done with my career and take off my jersey, I want to think about this moment. So I want to do well so the memory will be good.”

“To be on a stage like this in Tokyo, Japanese pitchers facing off on the field is an incredible opportunity,” Yamamoto said through interpreter Yoshihiro Sonoda. “I’m going to try my best to perform.”

Yamamoto struggled in his first start for the Dodgers in Korea in 2024. The 26-year-old right-hander mentioned that he feels in a “much better place” now that he has a season under his belt. This game means a lot to him, knowing he struggled on a similar stage last year, but this time, he pitches in a spot he feels very comfortable in.

I am confident in both starters, leading to my selection for this game.

Spring training stats are not a great way to gauge a pitcher’s early performance. Shota Imanaga posted a 5.68 ERA in spring training last season and then pitched to a 0.98 ERA through 27 innings in March and April. In spring training, starters are often working on things (new pitch grips, mechanics, game plans, etc.). Yamamoto pitched to an 8.38 ERA in spring last year and is now down to 4.15.

The atmosphere in a meaningless spring training game can’t hold a candle to this one, and for these two pitchers with fresh arms, it will have the feel of a playoff-type atmosphere, which typically leads to pitcher’s duals.

These starters don’t have much experience against their opposing lineups, but in their limited samples, it’s gone well.

Yamamoto has 26 PA against the Cubs’ current roster, which only mustered a minuscule .083 batting average. Their xwOBA is .256, well below the league average, and they have struck out 42% of the time. Ian Happ and Nico Hoerner are the only players with a hit against Yamamoto. Nico Hoerner did not travel with the team to Japan, as he will likely start the season on the IL with a forearm injury.

Imanaga has a larger sample against the Dodgers’ current roster, spanning 39 PA. Dodgers hitters have done relatively well, hitting .231 with a .321 xwOBA, both around league average. A player to watch is Tommy Edman, who is 2-3 with two home runs against Imanaga. However, Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith, and Teoscar Hernandez are a combined 2-14, with both hits singles.

The Dodgers offense is lethal against lefties and righties, but the loss of Mookie Betts certainly hurts. He was questionable to play, but it was reported that he’s been sick and lost 15 pounds, so the Dodgers felt it was necessary to keep him out of the series. I bet before he got injured, so the line has since moved.

Beyond these starters, projected to go about five innings, have two rested bullpens to follow. The Dodgers bullpen has a real chance of being the best in baseball this year after finishing fourth in ERA in 2024. They added some of the best relievers in baseball, such as Tanner Scott and Kirby Yates, and they still have Blake Treinen and Alex Vesia ready to go. They will be without Michael Kopech, Evan Phillips, and Brusdar Graterol, but the bullpen is still set up exceptionally well to limit runs after Yamamoto exits.

The bullpen behind Shota Imanaga is not great, but they are also fully rested. Chicago picked up Ryan Pressly and Ryan Brazier this offseason to go alongside righties Porter Hodge (1.88 ERA) and Tyson Miller (2.32 ERA). Left-hander Caleb Thielbar will be their answer late against Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman, and he pitched to a 2.59 FIP with a 28% strikeout rate against lefties in 2024.

Last season, we bet the under, and the game ended 5-2. The Padres were winning the game 2-1 until the 8th inning, where the Dodgers hung a four-run inning on them, and it still went under. MLB has opened its season five times in Tokyo, and the game has gone under the total in three of them. It is not much of a trend, but it is worth noting that bats tend to be sleepy this early in the season more often than not.

The Tokyo Dome is a neutral field compared to other NPB stadiums, but it does lean towards the hitter compared to MLB stadiums. It’s 400 feet to center field, 360 feet in the power alleys, and 330 feet down the line. The smaller outfield lends itself to singles and doubles being caught, but if batters are to get a hold of one, they are more likely to hit a home run here than in the average big league park. However, the smaller outfield dimensions are offset by 13-foot tall walls, holding in-line-drive home runs.

Disclaimer: I bet the Under 8.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 Units on March 13th before the Mookie Betts news, and currently, on BetMGM, the total is heavily juiced towards the Under at 8. There isn’t much value anymore at that number.

Before the Mookie Betts injury, I projected the game at 7.8 runs. Without Mookie Betts, my projected total is now closer to 7.5. If you agree with my analysis, based on my projections, there is enough value to constitute a half-unit play on the under. I cannot control line movement and wouldn’t push you to a play I wouldn’t bet myself. If presented with the current line, it would be a half-unit play.

I sent this out to our discord members on March 13th, and for just $5, you can join for a full 30 days! We also have discounted six-month and year packages. You’ll get all my picks as soon as I place them, and all of my 2025 MLB futures can also be found there.