Written By: Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
The San Francisco Giants cost us a perfect day yesterday. I still don’t understand why Logan Webb stayed in that game to face Jorge Soler. I would’ve intentionally walked him and brought in a left-hander to face Jazz Chisolm. Doesn’t matter anymore and thankfully the Cubs tucked us in last night to give us a push on the day.
We also had our second-straight day of one of our bets getting canceled due to the weather. I guess that’s what I get for wanting to sweat out a under in Detroit, maybe the rain was for the best. Enough about yesterday we have ourselves a new day and I love the card. We are going to win today. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 53-30-1 (+28.27 U)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals @ 7:05 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Dean Kremer vs. Josiah Gray
We have a couple system match plays for today and this matchup definitely checks some boxes. The Orioles opened up as -135 favorites and continue to receive steam in their favor. I’m seeing the line closer to -140 and even -145 in most books. The system is simple, interleague favorites.
This system is 39-20 this season and it’s due to the lack of familiarity between these two teams. The Orioles are also a non-divisional road favorite which is 42-20 (68%) and both teams had the day off yesterday and when you get the extra day you ride with the better team. That system is 19-7 to begin the year and it’s hard to not pass on this Orioles line.
Washington is 2-7 against righties and I expect them to struggle tonight against Kremer. If you want to just look at the run differential the Orioles are sitting at +7 with the Nats at -20. I’m not overthinking, give me the better team. Let’s go O’s.
The Play: Orioles ML (-142) 2.13 U to win 1.5 U
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Taj Bradley vs. Nick Lodolo
This is usually a spot where I would back Nick Lodolo but the total in this game stood out to me. Lodolo has pitched extremely well this season and is 2-0 with a 2.12 ERA but he is going against one of the better teams in baseball. Taj Bradley has himself an advantage because he is only making his second career start and the lack of familiarity will benefit the young pitcher on the road.
The total is set at 9 in this game and I see this one soaring under. There is no wind or weather to worry about in this game, the wind will only be blowing at 6 mph come game time. Looking at the betting percentages 83 percent of the tickets and 78 percent of the money is on the under. Both of these teams typically play to the over but this matchup between these pitchers has me leaning towards a low scoring affair. I also like both of these teams’ bullpen in the later innings especially if the Rays find themselves with the lead.
The Play: Rays/Reds U9 (-105) 1.05 U to win 1 U
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies @ 8:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Vince Velasquez vs. Jose Urena
Both of these pitchers starting we have faded to begin the year. Now they face off in Coors Field with winds blowing out to right field at 18 mph come game time. I don’t care how high this total is, I’m pulling the trigger. The total opened at 12 and is now at 12.5 and instead of picking a side in this one I’m going to play the over.
The first five total was too high for me and I rather play the full game considering how bad both these team’s bullpens are. There is nothing else to say about this one and I’m not going to overthink it. Two bad pitchers, the Coors effect, and the Rockies used four bullpen arms yesterday. I’m expecting to see some runs today.
The Play: Pirates/Rockies O12.5 (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U
Chicago Cubs vs. Oakland Athletics @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Marcus Stroman vs. Ken Waldichuk
The Stro show is on the mound today and we backed the Cubbies yesterday as they cruised to a 10-1 win over Oakland. This is the same system I mentioned with the Orioles, this is another interleague game and I’m going to fade Oakland again. The total for this game is set at 7.5 and with a lower total it significantly favors the Cubs.
I see this line as a way for the books to back Stroman and they are giving respect to the Chicago’s ace. It could be a square play again but this system is hitting at such a high rate to start the season and I will continue to play it. I am looking primarily at the first five innings rather than the full game or spread. The Cubs mash lefties and we saw it yesterday. How about Patrick Wisdom and his two-homer night? The Cubs bats are hot and Waldichuk’s 10.20 ERA isn’t getting it done. I’m backing Stroman in this one and I see him shutting down this A’s lineup. If it isn’t broke don’t fix it.
The Play: Cubs -1/2 F5 (-120) & A’s TT u3.5 (-130) both plays are to win 1 U.