MLB Best Bets, April 30th, 2023
Three straight perfect days, and we are looking to close the weekend with some winners. Four games caught our attention on Sunday's slate.
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
We are on a little bit of a heater right now. We have had three straight perfect days, and over the last seven days we are 17-5! The goal is to keep this winning streak going and for us to close out the week with some winners. I have four plays on today’s card, but I have two two-unit plays! Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 77-42-1 (+37.61 U)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox @ 1:35 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: Cody Allen vs. Chris Sale
In this matchup we are strictly following the money. The line opened up with the Guardians as a +124 underdog and now we see Cleveland at +109. The line has moved 15 cents in their favor, and when you look at the betting splits, 54% of the bets are on the Guardians but they are bringing in 87% of the money.
From a baseball standpoint, I expect a lot of square bettors to see Chris Sale as a short home favorite and hammering the Red Sox. Sale has allowed less than three runs only once this season and has a 8.00 ERA at home. Logan Allen is making his second start of the year and this line is too fishy for me to not back the young lefty on the road.
The Play: Cleveland Guardians ML (+109) 1 U to win 1.09 U
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Chicago White Sox @ 2:10 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs. Mike Clevinger
It’s Drew Rasmussen day! If you’ve been following along you’re well aware that we tail Rasmussen when he is on the bump. The White Sox have continued to lose and they might never win again. The lack of effort and accountability in Chicago is unbelievable. From a betting standpoint, I want to take advantage of their losing streak for as long as I can.
Rasmussen is 3-2 on the season with a 3.33 ERA and a 3.28 xERA according to Statcast. He is in the top six percent of the league in HardHit% and near the 80th percentile in xSLG, K%, and xERA/xwOBA. He should have no problem dealing with a White Sox lineup that has lost ten straight.
Mike Clevinger will look to turn things around for Chicago, but he has struggled mightily as of late. He’s given up nine runs combined over his last two starts and didn’t even go past the fifth inning. Clevinger is 2-2 with a 4.81 ERA, but his xERA is at 5.65. He is no longer as dominate as he used to be and the Rays are 17-4 in their last 21 games against a right-handed starter. C’mon Tampa Bay.
The Play: Tampa Bay Rays F5 -1/2 (-130) 1.3 U to win 1 U
Los Angeles Angels vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:10 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: Jose Suarez vs. Colin Rea
We are fading the Angels. This is another system play that is hitting over 62% of the time, and that’s interleague favorites. The Angels are 2-11 in their last 13 interleague road games and 1-10 in their last 11 interleague games against a right-handed starter. The Brewers are -122 favorites at home, and with the system match and trends in their favor, it’s tough not to ride with the Brew Crew again.
Jose Suarez has quite literally been the worst pitcher in baseball — his xERA is 7.23, which ranks in the bottom eight percent of the league according to Statcast. He also ranks in the bottom one percent in WOBA, bottom four percent in xSLG, and in the bottom seven percent in K%. To keep it simple, he’s bad.
The Brewers, on the other hand, are 8-1 in their last 9 interleague games vs. a left-handed starter and are on a three-game winning streak. Milwaukee is sending out Colin Rea who’s making his fourth career start, and if he can limit the walks, he should have success against Los Angeles.
Give me the Brew Crew.
The Play: Milwaukee Brewers ML (-122) 2.44 U to win 2 U
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers @ 2:35 PM ET
Pitching Matchup: Nestor Cortes vs. Martin Perez
We have another system play in this one. Non-divisional road favorites are hitting over 70% this season and this is a trend we are going to tail. The line opened at -116 towards New York and the Yankees are now -124 with the line continuing to move in their favor. They are currently taking in 34% of the bets but 69% of the money.
This is a bounce-back spot for New York after losing their last two games against Texas. New York has fared well in these bounce-back spots and are 9-4 in their last 13 games following a loss. The Yankees are looking to tie up the four-game series with a win and are sending out Nestor Cortes against Martin Perez. While Perez has continued to be effective this season, he has struggled in the past against New York; he is 2-5 with a 5.80 ERA in 14 starts versus the Yanks.
I see Perez’s struggles against New York continuing, and with the line movement, trends, and system play matching we are going to ride with the Bronx Bombers. Don’t be surprised when DJ LeMahieu homers. Let’s hope Peter Appel’s team can come through for us.
The Play: New York Yankees ML (-121) 2.42 U to win 2 U