By Tomas Romo
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
Last week was rough. The ball hasn’t been rolling our way but we got ourselves a long season ahead. We are still up +26.35 units to start the MLB season and we are going to turn it around this week. I have three plays to give out and we have to start Monday off with some winners. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JB200” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 60-38-1 (+26.35 U)
Texas Rangers vs. Cincinnati Reds @ 6:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Nathan Eovaldi vs. Nick Lodolo
We have ourselves a system play! Non-divisional road favorites are hitting at over 70% to start the season and interleague favorites are hitting at over 62%. This two systems back the Rangers in this matchup against the Reds. The Rangers opened as a -108 favorite and have been steamed up to -114 in most books. Texas has the line movement and system matches in their favor.
Nathan Eovaldi is better than his 5.40 ERA, the Rangers right-hander has pitched 21.2 innings this season with a 24/4 K/BB ratio. Eovaldi has a 3.81 xERA according to statcast and this isn’t a good matchup for the Reds who have gone cold offensively scoring just six runs in their last five games.
As much as I like Nick Lodolo I don’t see his offense providing much support and the Rangers bats have been hot as of late. Texas is 10-3 in their last 13 games and are averaging 7.7 runs per game over that stretch. The Rangers have also played pretty well on the road with a 6-3 record while the Reds are just 6-6 at home.
As I said earlier it’s a system play and I’m not going to overthink it. Let’s go Rangers.
The Play: Texas Rangers ML (-112) 1.12 U to win 1 U
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Lance Lynn vs. Chris Bassitt
What happened to Lance Lynn? Two years ago he was a Cy Young finalist and now he finds himself with a 0-2 record and a 7.59 ERA. His velocity is down only averaging 92 mph on his fastball and he just doesn’t look as electric as he once did. The White Sox have struggled as a whole this season and find themselves below .500 and fourth place in the AL Central.
Lynn’s expected ERA is 6.09 and is in the bottom percentile in XWOBACON at .486. Hitters have had success in all aspects against him this season and I see that trend continuing tonight. The Blue Jays have had success off of Lynn in the past, he has a 2-3 record with a 4.33 ERA in his career against Toronto. The bulk of the Blue Jays linup is familiar with Lynn and have had success off of him in the past.
George Springer, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Bo Bichette are all batting over .250 against the Chicago right-hander and combine for a .714 OPS. The White Sox pitching staff has a 5.43 ERA and opponenets are batting .262 against them. The Blue Jays are 4-2 at home and the White Sox are 4-9 on the road. Toronto is averaging 4.7 runs at home and going against a weak Chicago pitching staff I see this team producing tonight.
The Play: Toronto Blue Jays TT O4.5 (-130) 1.3 U to win 1 U
Oakland Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Ken Waldichuk vs. Jose Suarez
We are going to be looking at the total in this matchup. The total opened at 9.5 and is juiced up at -125 and will probably go to 10 before the game starts. I can’t fade the Oakland A’s with Jose Suarez on the mound and I don’t care how bad Ken Waldichuk has been this season. All I am sure of is that runs will be scored and the line represents that as well.
Oakland comes into this game with the worst record in baseball and I wouldn’t be surprised if they snuck out a win against the Halos tonight. However, Jose Suarez is trending towards being one of the worst pitchers in baseball. He has a 9.26 ERA in 11.2 IP and is in the bottom percentile in most major categories like xBA, K%, Whiff %, and xERA/xwOBA according to statcast.
Waldichuk is just as bad. He comes into this game with a 7.65 ERA and has faced the Angels once this season when he gave up six runs in 5.2 innings. He has given up seven homers in 20 IP and continues to struggle with finding the strike zone. Waldichuk like Suarez is in the bottom percentile in most major categories like xBA, K%, Whiff %, and xERA/xwOBA according to statcast.
This game is soaring over. There is something about Angels overs that just seem to cash and the A’s have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The right-handed bats for the Halos should have a field day against Waldichuk and I see Oakland have success against Suarez as well. Life’s too short to bet the under, let’s see some runs tonight.
The Play: Oakland Athletics/Los Angeles Angels O 9.5 (-125) 1.25 U to win 1 U