Three wins in a row!

We started off the season red hot, going 15-5. Then, we lost five in a row. We needed a sweep on Tuesday, and we got it. Then, we smacked our Wednesday play of the day with ease. The Red Sox and the Rays had a 9.5 total on Wednesday, we bet the under, and the game ended 1-0.

Today, we’re back with another total that showcases significant value. Hopefully, we end the night with our fourth straight win.

2025 Record: 18-11 (+7.00 Units)

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San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Giants: Logan Webb (2.63 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 24 Innings)

Angels: Tyler Anderson (2.87 ERA, 1.15 WHIP in 15.2 Innings)

The Giants are MLB’s best “over” team, sitting with a staggering 14-5 record. Eight straight Giants’ games have gone over the total, which rarely happens. The Angels have also been a typical “over” team, sitting at 10-8. However, today’s game suggests a lower-scoring battle, but the oddsmakers have not adjusted due to the recent schedules of both teams.

The Giants have played 13 road games this season, and 11 of them have gone over the total. That’s not sustainable, and I think they’ll have trouble with Tyler Anderson today, just as they did with Christopher Sanchez yesterday.

The Giants’ offense hasn’t been clicking against lefties. They have an 89 wRC+ to start the year in over 200 PA, 11% below league average. They just set the pitch-tracking record for whiffs against a changeup, which is Anderson’s most-used secondary.

San Francisco also has a league-average Hard-Hit rate against left-handed pitchers. The Giants scored ten runs in both games facing off against righties, but just four runs in the two games against lefties in their last series.

Anderson’s numbers against the Giants’ current roster aren’t great, but they aren’t that bad either, especially when Anderson has outperformed batted ball quality metrics for years now. Giants’ hitters have a career .277 batting average against Anderson with a .350 xwOBA. The issue isn’t hard contact; they only have an average exit velocity of 85.2 MPH.

That’s the second-lowest mark on the board today among pitchers with at least 50 PA against their opposing offense. We’ll talk about number one in a moment.

Anderson is off to a great start this season, resembling his performance from 2024. He’s an older pitcher, so it makes sense that when his arm is fresher, he’s a better pitcher. Last season, his first two months yielded an ERA below three, but batters eventually caught up to him. I believe we are still in his sweet spot. Knowing he’s facing a struggling Giants’ offense against lefties, I think he gives us a quality start today (six innings, three runs) with the upside for a better performance.

Behind Anderson is a mediocre bullpen, but they are in a good rest spot. Reid Detmers and Brocke Burke are ready to go, both lefties, to continue to slow down San Francisco. Kenley Jansen hasn’t pitched since April 12th, so we should see him no matter what. I’m confident the Giants stay under their 4.5 team total.

On the other side, the Angels’ offense started hot, but has slowed down lately. They only scored four runs in three games against the Rangers, who threw Tyler Mahle, Patrick Corbin, and Kumar Rocker. The full season numbers against righties are still solid, but the ABs they are taking lately are horrible, and I want to fade them, especially with Logan Webb.

Webb’s numbers against the Angels’ current roster are incredible. In 59 PA against the Angels, he’s posted a .175 batting average against with a .212 xwOBA and a 37.3% strikeout rate. Those types of dominant numbers don’t come around often. Tyler Anderson is number two in average exit velocity against, and Logan Webb is number one at 84.2 MPH—soft-contact day at Angels Stadium.

Another crazy stat. The Angels’ average launch angle against Logan Webb is -12.8 degrees. I’ve been doing this for a while, and I can’t even remember seeing that before. In a small sample, perhaps, but with 59 PA, that’s remarkable.

Behind Webb is an elite bullpen that’s well-rested for this one. The Giants likely won’t need many relievers as Webb is the king of eating innings. Still, we have Ryan Walker, Randy Rodriguez, Camilo Doval, and Tyler Rogers all ready for action. The first three didn’t throw yesterday, and Rogers only threw four pitches.

There is also an element of travel involved. It’s not a big deal, but it’s a tiny edge worth mentioning. The Giants had to fly from Philadelphia to Los Angeles without an off-day in between, and the Angels flew from Texas to LA without an off-day as well. Typically, we get a more sluggish offense when you include long travel without a day to adjust.

I have this total at 7.4 runs without accounting for travel, and we’re getting a decently priced 8. I don’t mind taking under 7.5 at a plus number, but at -105, taking the under 8 is the way to go. I would take this all the way down to 7.5 (+100). Final score prediction: 4-3 Giants.

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