Division Series Game 1 Best Bets, MLB Playoff Picks for Saturday, October 5, 2024
The Mets! Pete Alonso! What a win!
We took the Mets ML (+110) on Thursday, one of the most enjoyable bets I’ve ever cashed. The Mets were down 2-0 in the top of the ninth, and Pete Alonso hit a three-run home run to send the Mets to the NLDS. It was an incredible game, and it gave us three straight winners.
I’m tempted to unload on this board with four playoff games, but I feel the most confident when I see how the first game goes. Our lone losing day came during the first games, and it’s the toughest to read when we haven’t seen these teams play yet. Momentum is powerful, but with everybody taking a day off in between, it’s challenging to know whether it will continue.
There is one area to attack today. Shohei Ohtani may go down as the GOAT, and I don’t know about you, but I’m not about to miss his first playoff game.
All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.
San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers @ 7:08 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Dylan Cease (3.47 ERA) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.00 ERA)
The Just Baseball crew and I were privileged to cover the World Baseball Classic in Miami in person. It was one of the most incredible experiences of my life as we watched the most outstanding baseball talent come together to represent their countries. Team USA was loaded with talent, but Team Japan came out victorious. In the most significant moment, one man rose above: Shohei Ohtani.
He is the greatest baseball player I’ve ever seen, and today is his first playoff game. Call me Joe Public; I do not care. I am not missing the opportunity to back this man in his first playoff game.
Ohtani’s matchup against Dylan Cease is above average, as Cease’s strengths have yet to prove to be able to work against him consistently. Dylan Cease is straightforward; he throws his four-seam fastball 43.5% of the time and his slider 42.9%, taking up 86% of his arsenal. He’ll mix a knuckle curve and a sweeper, but it’s mostly the same formula. He’s trying to get by you with the fastball and tunnel off that with elite-breaking stuff.
Ohtani pretty much hits everything, but that formula is especially bad against Ohtani.
This is from Baseball Savant, and it ranks how well a player hits a particular pitch. Nobody is better against fastballs than Aaron Judge, but the second-worst matchup in the league is Ohtani against fastballs. The only offspeed pitch that makes this list is Ohtani against sliders. The chart almost doesn’t look real; Ohtani is better against sliders than most hitters are against fastballs.
No wonder Ohtani has plenty of success against Dylan Cease. 86% of what he will see are his two favorite pitches to hit. He’s 5-14 with two doubles and a home run against Cease in his career. He has a .267 batting average, but he’s been unlucky with those results. His expected numbers against Cease are diabolical: .385 xBA, 1.037 xSLG, and .594 xwOBA. The average ball off Ohtani’s bat against Cease travels 101.4 MPH.
Why pitch to him at all? You’re right, I wouldn’t, so if he does walk, I want to cash in on something else; a stolen base.
Ohtani stole more bases than hit home runs; the man had 54 long balls. He has a shot of hitting a home run in this game, but I think what’s more likely is he swipes a base. Not just because he has more steals than homers; this is an excellent match up to snag one.
Kyle Higashioka hits bombs, but he’s not known for his arm. His 2.02 pop-time sits in the tenth percentile among qualified catchers, one of the worst marks in the league. The Braves could barely get anybody on, and they only have a few base stealers, so he wasn’t tested much in the first series. In two games, the Braves went 1-1 in the stolen base department.
Higashioka ranks 46th out of 63 qualified catchers in Catchers CS (Caught Stealing) Above Average. His CS rate is 19%, ranking 35th out of 63 qualified catchers. He’s not someone we have to worry about behind the plate. If Elias Diaz gets the start for whatever reason, that’s fine, as Ohtani stole a base off a lefty in Adrian Morejon with Diaz catching on September 25th.
Cease is league average at allowing base stealers to advance. Out of 209 qualified pitchers, he ranks 101 in stolen base success rate. He’s very live in this category with an average pitcher and a below-average catcher.
When Ohtani matched up against Dylan Cease in his last start, he finished the day 2-3 with two RBIs, a double, and a stolen base. You could go with his Over 1.5 H/R/RBI at around -150, but I don’t want to rely on anyone else to do damage. I want to back Ohtani, and at these plus prices, it’s a must-bet.
The Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) Risk 1 Unit, Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 Stolen Bases (+205) Risk 0.25 Units
Written by
Peter is the Co-Founder and Director of Content Strategy of Justbaseball.com and the Co-Host of the Just Baseball Show.