We hedged happiness last night and lost. My fandom won with the Yankees winning 4-2, but our Guardians bet lost. Today, we aren’t heading anything. I’m going with my best play possible.
I was abysmal on Sunday. On the podcast, I went 2-1 with my game picks, but on Sunday, I hedged out and added two losing choices to make me go 1-3. What a disaster for me, but I learned from it.
Go with your gut.
Today, I have a Monday Night Football pick for you on the podcast and my game pick for Game 5 below, and plenty of props are also available on the podcast.
2022 MLB Regular Season Record: 226-185 (55%) +42.09 Units
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees: 7:07 pm EST
Aaron Civale (RHP, Guardians) [5-6, 4.92 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 98 K]
Jameson Taillon (RHP, Yankees) [14-5, 3.91 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 151 K]
Game 5, win or go home, Guardians versus Yankees at Yankee Stadium. I thank the lord this game is happening, so I don’t have to watch Monday Night Football.
Let me explain what I think the line means because I think it’s speaking to us. This line (-160) is inflated toward the Yankees, but I think the books expect the Yankees to win. If you’re new to betting, that may not make much sense. I believe they are making you pay a premium for the Yankees, even though it’s much closer than this.
I think the line should be around -130, indicating the Yankees should be favorites but not at that price. Therefore the Guardians have solid value, but the probability of them winning doesn’t seem worth it. I’m going to stay away from picking a winner. Boring, I know. I do have a more intriguing way of going about this matchup.
Aaron Civale should have early troubles. I’m shocked he’s getting the ball today, but with that said, I’ll be equally as surprised if he throws more than 2-3 innings. He has not fared well against the Yankees this season. In two starts, he’s rocking a 10.00 ERA over nine innings.
In Yankee Stadium on April 24, he threw three innings and allowed seven hits and six earned runs in a 10-2 loss for Cleveland. On July 2 at home, he allowed four earned runs over six innings in a 6-1 defeat. It’s been that kind of season for Civale, who’s rocking a 5.88 ERA on the road this season compared to a 3.80 ERA at home.
Civale has a home run issue. He’s allowing 1.33 home runs per nine innings which is not a good recipe against this potent Yankees offense at Yankee Stadium.
Similar to Quantrill, Civale doesn’t match up well against the Yankees. Pitchers like Bieber that get you to swing outside the zone, can give the Yankees issues. Pitchers like Quantrill and Civale who are around the zone with less than wipeout stuff often fall victim to the Yankees’ power to all fields. We’ve seen it twice with Quantrill, a better pitcher than Civale.
Following Aaron Civale will be… Shane Bieber? It’s currently unclear how the Guardians will go about following Civale. They have most of their better bullpen arms rested and ready to go. That includes De Los Santos, Stephan, Karinchak, and Clase. An incredible unit of arms that should lock down the later innings. I do think the Yankees strike quickly against Civale for an early lead but then the scoring comes to a halt.
Jameson Taillon will get the ball for the Yankees, whose current 2022 playoff ERA is INF. “INF” means infinity, meaning he could not record an out before allowing two earned runs on Friday. He didn’t get crushed, he just got a taste of what the Guardians have been doing to most pitchers throughout the season. They don’t cut your head off; they slash you with a butter knife until you bleed out.
I’ve written about 600 articles this year about who the Guardians like to face. They want four-seam/slider pitchers trying to get you to chase outside the zone. The Guardians don’t chase and wait for you to hang one in the middle of the zone. They are like cheetahs lying in the grass. They could probably outrun you, but they wait until you finally give in and drink water from the lake before chasing you down.
Taillon had some success against Cleveland on April 22, throwing five innings while only allowing one earned run. He gave up seven hits in that outing and didn’t match up well against Cleveland. I expect him to throw three innings before handing the ball off to Nestor.
Nestor Cortes Jr has been one of the best pitchers in the American League this season. He didn’t look as sharp against the Guardians in a high-leverage situation. I think he’ll look a bit better in a shorter stint, considering it took four innings for the Guardians to score against him.
There are a lot of reasons to expect runs early, but not late. The bullpens have been marvelous in this series, especially the Guardians. The weather is also supposed to be less than ideal. There is wind blowing in, and more than likely, we will see some rain. Ballparkpal is calling for an eight percent decrease in runs.
The runs should come against Civale and Taillon, but that’s where the scoring will stop. I don’t have much faith in the Yankees scoring against this lethal Guardians bullpen that’s rested. I don’t have much confidence in the Yankees’ bullpen, but the Guardians’ offense doesn’t look strong. The Yankees will have Loisaga, Trivino, Holmes, Schmidt, and Wandy Peralta in a pinch if they need him. You combine that with Nestor and Taillon, and I’m not sure the Guardians put up more than three runs.
I have this game ending 4-3 in favor of the Yankees. The first half total is four; I think it lands on four. I don’t see how four more runs are scored in the later innings, so considering we have a hook to play with, I’ll be on the whole game under.