Welcome back to MLB Player Props on PrizePicks! We are off to a fast start, tallying a 4-2 record on props so far this year. I have two more to keep us in the green on this beautiful Friday.
CJ Cron over 1.5 Total Bases
This is not available on PrizePicks at the moment but is on books for around -125. This is a dream matchup for Cron against Zach Davies, a softer throwing sinker-changeup pitcher.
This fits the bill for Cron’s two significant splits, as he hits .305 vs RHP compared to .221 vs LHP and .324 at home compared to .230 on the road. Cron has run values of 4 vs the sinker and 11 vs the changeup, which Davies throws a combined 90% of the time to right-handed batters.
Cron is known for working counts well and taking multiple strikes in plenty of his at-bats. In his four at-bats against Davies this year, three of them have ended in three or less pitches. This is a sign of a guy who sees this type of pitcher well and should continue that today. This will also be the first time Cron will see Davies in Coors this year as the previous two matchups were both in Arizona.
I will be looking to attack this on PrizePicks in some way, but the best value bet is in the total bases on books.
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases
One of the league’s hottest hitters against left-handed pitching will be facing one today in Daniel Lynch. He is hitting .327 vs lefties this year and that number has gotten some serious steam from what he’s been doing to them lately.
In the last 30 days, Mookie has only four balls put in play vs lefties at less than 90 mph off the bat, and three of them were hits. While I think Lynch may pitch a bit better than people are expecting, Mookie should be able to do what he does best in this matchup regardless.
He will see fastball-slider-changeup from Lynch, so nothing out of the ordinary. Mookie demolishes fastballs and changeups with an 8-run value on both. On the surface, his numbers don’t look great against the slider with his -3 run value. Lynch relies on his slider as his putaway pitch and will likely look to attack Betts with it. But Mookie’s expected batting average against the slider is .247, which is identical to his against the fastball, and his expected slugging is 26 points higher at .430. We will begin to see those results more and more down the stretch and it should begin tonight. This is available on PrizePicks, and it’s one of the best bets on the app.