I lost my favorite pick of the postseason on the over in Kansas City. I thought it was the right side; both teams combined to go 1-11 with runners in scoring position, leaving 17 on base. Lots of hard-hit baseballs, but only a few found the grass.

It’s okay; we hit on the Mets ML to soften the blow. We lost 0.72 units, and our playoff total is now 5.88 units in green. We only have two games today, and considering I’m a Yankee fan, I want to watch the game and hopefully enjoy it. I do have a pick in Guardians vs Tigers.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers @ 6:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tanner Bibee (3.47 ERA) vs. TBD (– ERA)

I couldn’t sleep last night. My brain did about a million simulations of this game, and one consistency rose above the rest.

The guy who could have gone 40/40 if the last game of the season wasn’t canceled. The man known as the most underrated superstar in Major League Baseball. The player I consider the best third baseman in baseball and the biggest reason the Guardians are even in this spot. Bring us home, Jose Ramirez.

I do think the Guardians win, but there is no value on that money line. I make the Guardians -120 in this matchup, so I align perfectly with the market. With the way we’ve been betting and winning, my price to play the Guardians would have to be -105 or better.

The reason I think they win is Jose Ramirez. This man has owned the Tigers throughout his career. He’s played nearly an entire season against this team, 155 games, and his numbers are incredible. He’s hitting .304 with 171 hits, 33 home runs, 122 RBIs, and 109 runs scored. So many hits, so many RBIs, so many runs.

Jose Ramirez is 1-9 in this series. He has two straight games without a hit, and the Guardians have been shut out in back-to-back games. We’ll give him a pass against Tarik Skubal, nobody can hit that man right now. Yesterday, he went 0-3 with a walk against a Tigers bullpen game, something he should likely see again.

The results weren’t there for him, but he hit the ball hard in two of those three ABs. He had a 102 MPH groundout and a 98 MPH flyout. Only Lane Thomas and Riley Greene hit the ball as hard as he did yesterday, and both of them recorded hits, and Riley Greene went over this line.

In 29 games against the Tigers this year, Jose Ramirez averaged 2.0 Hits/Runs/RBIs per game. Over the entire season, his average was 2.53. He’s the engine that makes the Guardians go, and with Steven Kwan seeing the ball well in front of him, Jose Ramirez gets a big hit to drive him in. Or, he does it himself with a home run (worth a sprinkle).

Detroit’s pitching will be chaotic again, so he’ll likely see many of the same relievers with less rest than yesterday. He’s been fantastic in the regular season against all the pitchers he could see today. In 65 AB against all of the Tigers’ pitchers that have thrown in this series, he’s slashing .308/.392/.523 for a .915 OPS with 9 RBIs. He knows them well, and with his back against the wall, I trust him to get the job done.

I don’t see a world where the Guardians win without Jose Ramirez’s contributions. It’s cheaper than the Guardians ML, and of course, he could go over this line, and they still lose. If the Guardians win and he doesn’t go over this line, I capped this wrong and deserved to lose.

Laser beam pointed at the earth; I want Jose Ramirez.

The Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits/Runs/RBI (-110) Risk 1.1 Units