2021 World Series Betting Preview: Schedule, Odds, and Prediction

2021 World Series Betting Odds:

Atlanta Braves Series Price: +120

Houston Astros Series Price: -140

Series Schedule:

Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 26, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 27, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 3: Friday, Oct. 29, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 4: Saturday, Oct. 30, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 5: Sunday, Oct. 31, 8:15 PM EST on FOX (if necessary)
Game 6: Tuesday, Nov. 2, 8:09 PM EST on FOX (if necessary)
Game 7: Wednesday, Nov. 3, 8:09 PM EST on FOX (if necessary)

MLB “When Will World Series Finish” Odds:

4 Games: +650

5 Games: +250

6 Games: +175

7 Games: +175

MLB “World Series Correct Score” Odds:

Braves to Win 4-0: +1700

Braves to Win 4-1: +650

Braves to Win 4-2: +500

Braves to Win 4-3: +500

Astros to Win 4-0: +1100

Astros to Win 4-1: +550

Astros to Win 4-2: +350

Astros to Win 4-3: +375

World Series MVP Odds:

Houston Astros:

Jose Altuve: +850

Alex Bregman: +850

Michael Brantley: +850

Yordan Alvarez: +850

Carlos Correa: +1000

Kyle Tucker: +1000

Framber Valdez: +1500

Yuli Gurriel: +2000

Luis Garcia: +2000

Zack Greinke: +18000

Atlanta Braves:

Freddie Freeman: +950

Max Fried: +1000

Austin Riley: +1200

Eddie Rosario: +1200

Charlie Morton: +1500

Ozzie Albies: +2000

Tyler Matzek: +2300

Joc Pederson: +2300

Adam Duvall: +2300

Dansby Swanson: +3300

Series Betting Preview

The Houston Astros opened up as a -130 favorite over the Atlanta Braves to win the World Series in the opening odds. That line has since favored the Astros even more, moving to -145. Let’s break down each of the four components that make up a baseball team: offense, defense, starting pitching, and bullpen, to see who has the edge in this series.

Offense: Lean Astros

This is not a slight to the Braves’ offense, but the Astros are on a different level. The first seven hitters in Houston’s lineup are either All-Star’s, potential Hall-of-Famers, or both. The Astros rank above the Braves in every significant category in the playoffs so far. Batting average runs, hits, stolen bases, RBI’s, OBP, SLG, OPS, wRC+, I could go on. The Braves have a solid offense, but the Astros reign supreme.

Defense: Lean Astros

Three stats I live by on defense are: Outs Above Average (OAA), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). The Astros finished in the top seven in baseball in all three categories during the regular season, while the Braves were closer to the middle of the pack based on these statistics. The catcher is the most important defensive position on the field, and Martin Maldonado is the superior defender over Travis d’Arnuad. The Astros are the better defensive team across the board, especially with Carlos Correa’s career year flashing the leather.

Starting Pitching: Lean Braves

This is where the Braves take over. I love this rotation, and it’s proven to be one of the best in baseball. The combination of Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson is one of the main reasons they’re here right now. The best pitcher on the Astros, Lance McCullers Jr., is OUT for the World Series with forearm discomfort. Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia both put up impressive outings in their last post-season start, so they’ll be pitchers to watch in this series. The Braves feed off their three-headed monster, and if they have a chance to win this series, those three will have to perform.

Bullpen: Push

This one is challenging because both bullpens have similar numbers in the playoffs and throughout the regular season. The Braves have relied heavily on Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and AJ Minter, giving them a 3.56 ERA during the post-season and a 3.99 ERA during the regular season.

The Astros rely on Kendall Graveman, Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, and Brooks Raley, giving them a 3.42 ERA during the post-season and a 4.07 ERA during the regular season. The Astros will use Zack Greinke, Christian Javier in the early innings, and the Braves will use Jesse Chavez and Drew Smyley.

Strickly on name value, you lean Astros there, but all four of these mentioned arms have been impactful in big spots. Both bullpens are above average, and both have performed well against high-powered offenses. Both have four solid high-leverage arms that I’d trust in any situation. I don’t see either team having an edge.

World Series Winner: Houston Astros (-140), Astros to win 4-2 (+350), 6 Games (+175)

I know, I know, I know. I’m picking the Astros to win the World Series. Do I want them to win? No! Does my fandom matter? No! What matters is the better team, and I think that’s the Astros. The Astros will have home-field advantage, playing the first two in Houston, the following three in Atlanta, and the last two back in Houston. I think the Astros split the first two games at home, win two of three on the road, and win in a decisive Game 6 at Minute Maid Park.

I’m tempted to take the Braves, but what we saw from Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia bodes very well for the Astros. If those two can replicate their performances, it may not matter what the Braves throw at them.

World Series MVP Winner: Carlos Correa (+1000)

It seems a bit like the award is his to lose. The odds reflect that Correa has the fifth-best chance to win the award on his team. Not only is their value there, but he’s been the best overall player on this team all season.

He finished first on the team in WAR at 7.2, third in OPS, fourth in AVG, second in OBP, fourth in slugging, fourth in home runs, and third in hits. He’s been a phenomenal defender at shortstop all year, and he’s posted a .868 OPS in the playoffs for his career. Correa posted a .855 OPS during this post-season run, and I see that bumping up into the .900s once this series is all said and done.

Not Gambling Advice – Peter 🙂