2021 World Series Betting Preview: Schedule, Odds, and Prediction
MLB World Series Betting Preview: Astros vs. Braves
2021 World Series Betting Odds:
Atlanta Braves Series Price: +120
Houston Astros Series Price: -140
Game 1: Tuesday, Oct. 26, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 2: Wednesday, Oct. 27, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 3: Friday, Oct. 29, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 4: Saturday, Oct. 30, 8:09 PM EST on FOX
Game 5: Sunday, Oct. 31, 8:15 PM EST on FOX (if necessary)
Game 6: Tuesday, Nov. 2, 8:09 PM EST on FOX (if necessary)
Game 7: Wednesday, Nov. 3, 8:09 PM EST on FOX (if necessary)
MLB “When Will World Series Finish” Odds:
4 Games: +650
5 Games: +250
6 Games: +175
7 Games: +175
MLB “World Series Correct Score” Odds:
Braves to Win 4-0: +1700
Braves to Win 4-1: +650
Braves to Win 4-2: +500
Braves to Win 4-3: +500
Astros to Win 4-0: +1100
Astros to Win 4-1: +550
Astros to Win 4-2: +350
Astros to Win 4-3: +375
World Series MVP Odds:
Jose Altuve: +850
Alex Bregman: +850
Michael Brantley: +850
Yordan Alvarez: +850
Carlos Correa: +1000
Kyle Tucker: +1000
Framber Valdez: +1500
Yuli Gurriel: +2000
Luis Garcia: +2000
Zack Greinke: +18000
Freddie Freeman: +950
Max Fried: +1000
Austin Riley: +1200
Eddie Rosario: +1200
Charlie Morton: +1500
Ozzie Albies: +2000
Tyler Matzek: +2300
Joc Pederson: +2300
Adam Duvall: +2300
Dansby Swanson: +3300
Series Betting Preview
The Houston Astros opened up as a -130 favorite over the Atlanta Braves to win the World Series in the opening odds. That line has since favored the Astros even more, moving to -145. Let’s break down each of the four components that make up a baseball team: offense, defense, starting pitching, and bullpen, to see who has the edge in this series.
Offense: Lean Astros
This is not a slight to the Braves’ offense, but the Astros are on a different level. The first seven hitters in Houston’s lineup are either All-Star’s, potential Hall-of-Famers, or both. The Astros rank above the Braves in every significant category in the playoffs so far. Batting average runs, hits, stolen bases, RBI’s, OBP, SLG, OPS, wRC+, I could go on. The Braves have a solid offense, but the Astros reign supreme.
Defense: Lean Astros
Three stats I live by on defense are: Outs Above Average (OAA), Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), and Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR). The Astros finished in the top seven in baseball in all three categories during the regular season, while the Braves were closer to the middle of the pack based on these statistics. The catcher is the most important defensive position on the field, and Martin Maldonado is the superior defender over Travis d’Arnuad. The Astros are the better defensive team across the board, especially with Carlos Correa’s career year flashing the leather.
Starting Pitching: Lean Braves
This is where the Braves take over. I love this rotation, and it’s proven to be one of the best in baseball. The combination of Charlie Morton, Max Fried, and Ian Anderson is one of the main reasons they’re here right now. The best pitcher on the Astros, Lance McCullers Jr., is OUT for the World Series with forearm discomfort. Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia both put up impressive outings in their last post-season start, so they’ll be pitchers to watch in this series. The Braves feed off their three-headed monster, and if they have a chance to win this series, those three will have to perform.
This one is challenging because both bullpens have similar numbers in the playoffs and throughout the regular season. The Braves have relied heavily on Will Smith, Tyler Matzek, Luke Jackson, and AJ Minter, giving them a 3.56 ERA during the post-season and a 3.99 ERA during the regular season.
The Astros rely on Kendall Graveman, Ryan Pressly, Ryne Stanek, and Brooks Raley, giving them a 3.42 ERA during the post-season and a 4.07 ERA during the regular season. The Astros will use Zack Greinke, Christian Javier in the early innings, and the Braves will use Jesse Chavez and Drew Smyley.
Strickly on name value, you lean Astros there, but all four of these mentioned arms have been impactful in big spots. Both bullpens are above average, and both have performed well against high-powered offenses. Both have four solid high-leverage arms that I’d trust in any situation. I don’t see either team having an edge.
World Series Winner: Houston Astros (-140), Astros to win 4-2 (+350), 6 Games (+175)
I know, I know, I know. I’m picking the Astros to win the World Series. Do I want them to win? No! Does my fandom matter? No! What matters is the better team, and I think that’s the Astros. The Astros will have home-field advantage, playing the first two in Houston, the following three in Atlanta, and the last two back in Houston. I think the Astros split the first two games at home, win two of three on the road, and win in a decisive Game 6 at Minute Maid Park.
I’m tempted to take the Braves, but what we saw from Framber Valdez and Luis Garcia bodes very well for the Astros. If those two can replicate their performances, it may not matter what the Braves throw at them.
World Series MVP Winner: Carlos Correa (+1000)
It seems a bit like the award is his to lose. The odds reflect that Correa has the fifth-best chance to win the award on his team. Not only is their value there, but he’s been the best overall player on this team all season.
He finished first on the team in WAR at 7.2, third in OPS, fourth in AVG, second in OBP, fourth in slugging, fourth in home runs, and third in hits. He’s been a phenomenal defender at shortstop all year, and he’s posted a .868 OPS in the playoffs for his career. Correa posted a .855 OPS during this post-season run, and I see that bumping up into the .900s once this series is all said and done.
Not Gambling Advice – Peter 🙂