Dropped a unit yesterday. We took the Angels run line at +105, and they won the game 1-0. The White Sox only had two hits and never scored a run, but the Angels still couldn’t muster a big hit with runners in scoring position to widen the lead. I stand by the play but knew what I was signing up for—those damn Angels.

That’s okay; it’s just a slight bump in the road. We are at a good pace this season, and I hope to return that unit with my best bet for Sunday.

2025 Record: 5-2 (+2.49 Units)

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Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners @ 4:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Angels: JP Sears (4.38 ERA, 4.71 FIP in 180.2 Innings)

Mariners: Bryan Woo (2.89 ERA, 3.40 FIP in 121.1 innings)

Let’s look at a player prop in this game that’s showing a lot of value. Bryan Woo, the pitcher for the Mariners, is one of the more talented pitchers in the game. He’s tasked with an offense that he’s had plenty of success against, and one of his lines has been a consistent winner in a matchup like this.

T-Mobile is the easiest park to pitch in. Based on baseball savant’s park factor, it was almost as easy for pitchers as Coors Field in Colorado is for hitters. It’s the most challenging park to accumulate hits and the easiest for pitchers to rack up strikeouts.

Bryan Woo loves pitching in Seattle. Last season, opponents only mustered 39 hits in 58.1 innings. Among all starters, Tarik Skubal had the lowest home opponent batting average at .171. Bryan Woo was tied for the fourth best at .186.

Bryan Woo has also dominated the Athletics when it comes to allowing hits. Through 76 PA against the current A’s roster, Woo has held them to a .167 batting average with a .214 xwOBA. They rarely get hits, and the quality of the Athletics’ contact against him is well below average. The middle of the A’s lineup, Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday, and Tyler Soderstrom, are a combined 6-38 (.157 batting average).

Bryan Woo faced the Athletics on four separate occasions last year. In his first start last season against the A’s, he threw 4.1 innings, only allowing one hit. It became a trend for him, as over his four total starts, he averaged 3.5 hits allowed. The average is higher because, in one of his starts, he allowed eight hits while pitching in Oakland. In two starts in Seattle, he’s allowed four hits in 9.1 innings.

Woo had the second-lowest WHIP in baseball last year among pitchers with at least 120 innings at 0.90. WHIP stands for “Walks & Hits Per Innings Pitched”, and against Oakland last year, it was at 0.79.

Woo made ten starts at home in 2023, going under 4.5 hits in seven (70%). He only allowed five hits to the Phillies and Tigers in two of those games. His worst start was against the Yankees, where he allowed eight hits. He was under 3.5 hits in five of his ten home starts, which is how dominant he typically is at home.

The A’s offense certainly looks better, but they only had two hits against Gilbert and three against Castillo. They did hit up Bryce Miller yesterday for six hits, but Woo arguably has as much talent as Gilbert. His problem is staying on the field.

This gets us to my next point: he’s likely not going any longer than 85 pitches. Woo is a pitcher they need to keep healthy, and he hasn’t gone longer than five innings in spring training. That’s not to say he isn’t ready for this start—he is, but I expect more of a limit with Woo than the other Mariners starters.

Castillo, Gilbert, and Miller all ate a ton of innings last year, so no need to limit them. Woo’s biggest weakness is staying on the field, so we should expect a limited outing. That said, I’m not going with the pitching outs, as Woo is a guy who can carve through six innings at 85 pitches or less.

The best plan of attack is taking Bryan Woo under 4.5 hits at -115. The line is moving as I write this, but it’s a substantial edge for me. I project Bryan Woo to go under 4.5 hits about 63% of the time, so I would take this up to -135 at a 1.15 unit risk. If it moves even farther, I would lower the risk and take it up to -145.

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