Buy or Sell: Spring Training Stats Standouts

We can all agree that spring training stats come with a massive asterisk. Not only is it a small sample, but the competition is a melting pot of All-Stars and guys who will be driving uber in a few weeks. I prefer to look at spring training as a warm up instead of try out, but that does not mean we cannot take anything away from the individual performances.

Each fanbase has been burned by buying into a spring training breakout in their life. The 30 year-old journeyman hitting 6 home runs didn’t translate to a full season of success?!

The All-star pitcher giving up four runs in an inning means his career is over, right?

You see where I am going with this.

More importantly, changes players have made carry more weight than just raw stats. A batter putting up new career highs in exit velocity or a swing change leading to better results matters. A pitcher adding a new pitch or tweaking an arm slot can tell us more than their ERA across 12 innings.

Today I’ll work through some of the spring training breakouts and slumps to tell you which I’m buying or selling.

Spring Training Performance’s I’m Buying

I’ve seen enough. Below is a list of the MVP favorites and future All-Star roster. Jokes aside, these players have shown me a different version of themselves or proven what we have seen is legitimate. Not all will translate to regular season success but have provided evidence to believe it is possible.

Casey Mize – Detroit Tigers

Spring Stats: 0.00 ERA, 2.65 FIP, 11 K/9

The former first overall pick has yet to reach the ceiling many had envisioned for him. Injury and a lack of swing and miss has moved him to a back-end starter or possible demotion candidate before piecing together a great spring training. Casey Mize increased his splitter’s velocity by three miles per hour resulting in more movement on the pitch and better strikeout numbers.

Mize having velocity jumps in his fastball offerings has helped his breaking pitches play up, leading to an increase in his swing and miss numbers.

Last season batters made a ton of contact off Mize which led to a heavy reliance on his defense to get outs. I think this version of Mize is the healthiest we have seen since before his injury and the small sample in spring is real. I’m expecting a career year from Mize.

Gavin Sheets – San Diego Padres

Spring Stats: .310/.341/.786, 6 HR

Going from the White Sox to literally any other organization has to be good for the mental side of things. Sheets is getting a fresh start and has already made some changes. His batting stance is a bit more upright with fewer movements and a simplified operation. Sheets already has two home runs off of lefties this spring which matches his career total.

San Diego has at-bats for the taking and Sheets is cruising toward winning some playing time. He’s impacting the baseball more than ever and has already hit 10 balls over 100 mph. Tapping into more power is what will add value to his game and so far that is exactly what we are seeing.

Gavin Williams – Cleveland Guardians

Spring Stats: 1.13 ERA, 0.92 FIP, 18 K/9

Gavin Williams is a former top prospect with a 4.04 ERA and 3.86 FIP through his first 32 starts in the majors, so putting him on this list might be cheating. However, I think what we are seeing this spring changes him from a guy in the Guardians rotation to a bona fide No. 2.

We are seeing swing and miss numbers that replicate his minor league years where he was comfortably striking out 12 per nine while also having plus command. It’s not a coincidence he’s amongst the leaders in whiff% this spring, his stuff is that good. I trust the Guardians organization as much as any and their lack of moves for the rotation only emphasizes their belief in the 25-year-old.

Curtis Mead – Tampa Bay Rays

Spring Stats: .576/.641/.697, 1 HR

Speaking of organization I trust with in-house evaluations, the Rays have another breakout candidate on their hands. Instead of trading the former top 50 prospect, the Rays have let him develop in the minors and it’s looking like that will pay off. Mead has attacked the baseball all spring popping a couple 110 mph exit velos while showing great bat control.

He’s not just finding results in one way, either. Mead has sprayed the ball all over the field finding hits everywhere. He’ll need to lift the ball more, but his high contact rates translates well to the next level. I see enough holes or questions with this Rays lineup to see a path where Mead can carve out plenty of playing time.

Daniel Lynch IV – Kansas City Royals

Spring Stats: 3.21 ERA, 2.23 FIP, 7 K/9

I’m doing it. I’m buying a ticket on the Daniel Lunch hype train, which may be the dullest hype train ever. Lynch is not the sexiest pitcher and will not lead the league in strikeouts, but has a six-pitch repertoire that I cannot ignore. We saw a productive pitcher in a limited sample last season that I think can take a step this year.

His slider produced a 50% whiff rate last season and his knuckle curveball has characteristics that could lead to a plus offering. Lynch’s change up has been a great pitch for him and as a lefty gives him an offering to help get righties out. There’s enough here to see a productive option to give the Royals another iron in the fire.

Spring Training Performance’s I’m Selling

Well, it can’t all be good. Sometimes, spring training is flat out lying to us. And not only by mediocre players with inflated stat lines, but with great player and poor stat lines. Here are some of the players that I just cannot buy into.

Ji Hwan Bae – Pittsburgh Pirates

Spring Stats: .481/.500/.741, 1 HR, 3 SB

Ji Hwarn Bae’s career has been exactly what you expect from a AAAA player. Great minor league stats and a 65 wRC+ as a major leaguer. Although his profile is contact over power, he’s struggled with swing and miss during his time in the majors and doesn’t make the impact necessary to make up for it.

The home run off former Pirate Quinn Priester was impressive, but I haven’t seen anything else that makes me believe his ceiling has changed. Bae can be a fine bench utility piece with some speed, but until he translates walking more from the minors to the majors, or finds more extra base hits, I’ll struggle to buy in.

Trayce Thompson – Boston Red Sox

Spring Stats: .345/.513/1.034, 6 HR

No disrespect to Trayce Thompson, whose managed to carve out a long career, but we’ve all been burned by this before. Thompson has shown this type of power before but the rest of his game has held him back from getting a larger opportunity. I see a similar case here.

The problem with Thompson’s game is his swing and miss. A 32.7% career strikeout rate is difficult to stomach and I do not think he’s fixed that issue. Even with his success, he will likely have to land with a different team have a chance to carve out a role.

Antonio Senzatela – Colorado Rockies

Spring Stats: 0.54 ERA, 2.78 FIP, 7.02 K/9

Listen, I’m just glad to see Senzatela back and healthy for the first time in years. Not only is he healthy, but is pitching to the tune of a 0.54 ERA while striking out seven per nine, which he has never done before. His velo looks to be back, but anything close to this level of production is bonkers.

Senzatela is a pitch to contact, ground ball machine. Getting back to the level of pitcher he has been throughout his career is very possible, but I do not think we have a post-injury miracle on our hands. His tick up in strikeouts is nice.

Ian Anderson – Atlanta Braves

Spring Stats: 2.25 ERA, 6.30 FIP, 4.5 K/9

Ian Anderson and Antonio Senzatela are not all that different of pitchers. High contact, high ground ball rate, back end options. The issue with Anderson is throwing strikes. His 2.25 ERA might look good on the surface, but it comes with 13 walks in 12 innings.

Not only are walks a problem, but Anderson has only struck out six batters across 12 innings. Although it is not the type of pitcher he is, surviving with that low of a strikeout rate is rare. Again, small, spring, sample, but I don’t personally see a different pitcher than years past.