AL East Is Primed to Be the Best Race in Baseball in the Second Half
Five teams. One crown. The AL East enters this year's second half as baseball's most compelling division race by a long shot.
Entering 2025, few would have predicted the chaos and competitiveness that would engulf the AL East by the All-Star Break. As the second half of the season kicks off, it’s shaping up to be the most thrilling divisional race in baseball.
The defending AL Pennant-winning Yankees are in second place. The Orioles, winners of 101 and 91 games in the past two seasons, are in last place and already fired their manager. Meanwhile, the previously written-off Blue Jays sit atop the division, with the Red Sox and Rays close behind. This division is stacked, flawed and chaotic, and with compelling storylines across each roster, it will be absolutely must-watch the rest of the way.
A Look Back: June 1 to July 13 Standings Shift
On June 1, the Yankees had a five-and-a-half-game lead on the second-place Blue Jays and boasted a +98 run differential. But the first half closed with a stunning shift:
July 13 AL East Standings:
- Blue Jays: 55-41 (+17 RD)
- Yankees: 53-43 (+111 RD)
- Red Sox: 53-45 (+61 RD)
- Rays: 50-47 (+61 RD)
- Orioles: 43-52 (-90 RD)
From June 1 to the break, the Blue Jays went 24-15, Red Sox 24-13, Rays 20-18, Orioles 21-16, and the Yankees? Just 17-21.
Yankees: Still the Favorites
Despite their recent skid, the Yankees lead the AL in run differential (by a wide margin) and feature the game’s top player in Aaron Judge (1.187 OPS, 7.3 WAR). Max Fried has given them an ace, Carlos Rodon is an All-Star No. 2, and even with Gerrit Cole lost for the season, their rotation has held up. The bullpen (20th in MLB with a 4.10 ERA) has been the weak link, in part due to closer Devin Williams’ struggles (4.58 ERA).
The Yankees lead MLB in OPS (.790) and home runs (151), and they have the 18th-hardest remaining schedule. They will buy big at the deadline, targeting a third baseman like Eugenio Suarez and bullpen help. The talent is there, and if health and bullpen performance stabilize, it’s hard to think any other team wins this division. They may not be in first place, but this is New York’s to lose.
Blue Jays: From Worst to First
Toronto’s stunning rise has been led by a balanced roster, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.275/.813 OPS, 2.1 WAR) and Bo Bichette (.280/.763 OPS) playing well, but not at their peaks. Guerrero had an identical first half last year and went nuclear down the stretch. George Springer (.276/.861 OPS, 16 HR) has caught fire, while Ernie Clement (.284 AVG, 2.2 WAR), Addison Barger (.818 OPS, 13 HR), and Alejandro Kirk (hitting .300+) provide a strong supporting cast. Anthony Santander and Daulton Varsho could soon return from injury, further boosting their depth. Even with Andres Giménez’ struggles at the plate (.218 AVG), his and the rest of the infield defense remain excellent.
Add in a strong bullpen (3.54 ERA, 7th in MLB) and the possibility of getting Santander and Varsho back healthy, and the Jays have depth.
Toronto’s rotation (Berríos, Bassitt, Gausman, Lauer, and Scherzer) is steady but aging. An additional arm and impact left-handed bat are likely trade deadline priorities. With the 10th hardest remaining schedule and a run differential of just +21, some regression could hit, but a few key additions and big second halves from Vlad and Bo could vault them into serious contention.
Red Sox: Baseball’s Hottest Team
After a rocky start and trading Rafael Devers, the Red Sox became MLB’s hottest team at the break, riding an 11-1 stretch to a 53–45 record. The Red Sox boast arguably the most electric blend of youth and veteran presence in the sport. Ceddanne Rafaela (.271/.793 OPS, 14 HR, 13 SB, 3.4 WAR) and Trevor Story (.254/.707 OPS) have surged. Top prospect Roman Anthony (.266/.788 OPS, 0.9 WAR) hit .341 in July before the break. Marcelo Mayer is settling in, Alex Bregman’s return could supercharge the offense and Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu provide big second-half upside.
Boston’s pitching has been equally impressive. Garrett Crochet (2.23 ERA, 4.3 WAR) has been a revelation. Lucas Giolito (3.59 ERA) and Brayan Bello (3.14 ERA) have been consistent, while the bullpen, led by Aroldis Chapman (1.18 ERA, 1.8 WAR), ranks 5th in MLB (3.42 ERA).
Facing the third hardest remaining schedule, Boston’s front office must decide: go all-in or straddle the line? Trading Chapman or Walker Buehler (6.12 ERA, -0.6 WAR) is on the table, but with this much talent, the Sox could make a legitimate run.
Rays: Scrappy, Balanced, and Dangerous
The ever-unpredictable Rays sit at 51–47 and are built, once again, on efficiency and defense. They lead MLB in batting average (.259), rank 5th in Defensive Runs Saved and play aggressive small-ball with speedsters like Jose Caballero (MLB stolen base leader) and Chandler Simpson (.317 AVG, 26 SB in 54 games). Junior Caminero (25 HR, 64 RBI, 2.3 WAR) is just scratching the surface of his potential.
Yet their bullpen ERA is just above the middle of the pack (3.75, 10th), and they may deal contributors like Brandon Lowe, Zack Littell (3.56 ERA) or Pete Fairbanks to add more long-term value. Still, as we’ve learned, never count the Rays out, especially with a relatively manageable strength of schedule (15th hardest).
Orioles: Last Place, but Don’t Count Them Out
They’re 43-53, have the worst run differential in the division at -100, and they don’t lack talent. Baltimore’s 21-17 record since June 1 suggests life. Jackson Holliday (.256/.714 OPS, 12 HR) and Gunnar Henderson (.282/.814 OPS) still have second-half breakout potential, and Adley Rutschman returning from injury gives hope. Ryan O’Hearn and Cedric Mullins may be deadline casualties, but this team has enough youth to play spoiler, or maybe even go on a run.
The pitching has been their Achilles heel. The bullpen is a mess, and the starters have been less than spectacular. Still, with the 4th-hardest remaining schedule, their young core will be tested, but don’t be shocked if they shake things up in August.
The Best Race in Baseball
The AL East has it all: MVPs, phenoms, historic franchises, trade deadline drama and five teams with genuine upside. While the Yankees still look like the most complete club, the Red Sox are surging, the Jays are built to fight for 162, the Rays are lurking, and the Orioles, well, no last-place team has more upside.
As the calendar flips to the second half, no race in baseball promises to deliver more drama, fireworks or postseason implications than this one.
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